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Violence, Political Instability, and International Trade: Evidence from Kenya’s Cut Flower Sector

Author

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  • Muhammad, Andrew
  • D'Souza, Anna
  • Amponsah, William A.

Abstract

Abstract: We assess whether and how violence and political instability affect trade between developed and developing countries considering the special case of EU imports of Kenyan roses after the 2007/08 post-election violence and political instability in Kenya. Using the Rotterdam model to estimate EU demand for roses from Kenya and other global competitors, we find evidence of a structural change in the import growth rate for Kenya, approximately equivalent to an 18.6% tariff. These results highlight the importance of non-tariff barriers to trade and contribute to the growing literature on the role of insecurity and instability in hindering international trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad, Andrew & D'Souza, Anna & Amponsah, William A., 2011. "Violence, Political Instability, and International Trade: Evidence from Kenya’s Cut Flower Sector," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 118374, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea11:118374
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118374
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giancarlo Moschini & Karl D. Meilke, 1989. "Modeling the Pattern of Structural Change in U.S. Meat Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 253-261.
    2. Alesina, Alberto & Özler, Sule & Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
    3. Clements, Kenneth W & Selvanathan, Antony & Selvanathan, Saroja, 1996. "Applied Demand Analysis: A Survey," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 72(216), pages 63-81, March.
    4. Ksoll, Christopher & Macchiavello, Rocco & Morjaria, Ameet, 2010. "The Effect of Ethnic Violence on an Export-Oriented Industry," CEPR Discussion Papers 8074, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Christopher Ksoll & Rocco Macchiavello & Ameet Morjaria, 2009. "Guns and Roses: The Impact of the Kenyan Post-Election Violence on Flower Exporting Firms," CSAE Working Paper Series 2009-06, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    6. Lee, Jack C., 1988. "Nested Rotterdam model : Applications to marketing research with special reference to telecommunications demand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 193-206.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kenya; Africa; EU; election violence; cut flowers; roses; imports; international trade; Demand and Price Analysis; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Political Economy; F14; F23; F59; O13; Q17;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F59 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Other
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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