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Testing Real Business Cycle Models in an Emerging Economy

  • Raimundo Soto

    ()

    (Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.)

  • Raphael Bergoeing

RBC models have been successful when applied to developed economies: their abilities in replicating the data of emerging countries remain largely unexplored. The rapid but unstable growth process in developing countries and their relatively less developed market structure pose a formidable challenge to neoclassical general equilibrium models. Using data of the Chilean economy, we explore the effects of market rigidities and macroeconomic policies on the dynamics of consumption, investment, inflation and factor markets. We find that business cycles models replicate much of the observed fluctuations of real and monetary variables in the Chilean economy, despite its idiosyncratic economic structure. Using a calibrated model we find that technology shocks, fiscal policies and labor market rigidities are the main sources of economic cycles, while monetary policies and wage indexation play a minor role. Econometric tests support the use of our calibrated model as an adequate representation of the Chilean data.

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Paper provided by Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 219.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Publication status: Published as "Testing Real Business Cycle Models in an Emerging Economy", en “General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy”. Editado por R. Chumacero and K. Schmidt-Hebbel, Banco Central de Chile, 2005.
Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:219
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  1. Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1988. "Involuntary unemployment in economies with efficient risk sharing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 501-515.
  2. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1990. "Labor Hoarding and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 3556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Gary Hansen, 2010. "Indivisible Labor and the Business Cycle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 233, David K. Levine.
  5. Hofman, Andre A, 2000. "Standardised Capital Stock Estimates in Latin America: A 1950-94 Update," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 45-86, January.
  6. Douglas Gollin, 2001. "Getting Income Shares Right," Department of Economics Working Papers 2001-11, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  7. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
  8. Raphael Bergoeing & Juan Enrique Suarez, 2001. "¿Qué Debemos Explicar? Reportando las Fluctuaciones Agregadas de la Economía Chilena," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 16(1), pages 145-166, June.
  9. Benhabib, Jess & Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1991. "Homework in Macroeconomics: Household Production and Aggregate Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1166-87, December.
  10. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  11. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
  12. Francisco Gallego & Raimundo Soto, 2000. "Evolución del Consumo y Compras de Bienes Durables en Chile, 1981-1999," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 79, Central Bank of Chile.
  13. Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996. "Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Technical Reports 78, Bank of Canada.
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