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¿Por qué el Valle del Cauca ha crecido más que el promedio nacional? Un análisis regional de los ciclos y los choques económicos

Author

Listed:
  • Pavel Vidal
  • Gilberto Ramírez
  • Lya Paola Sierra

    () (Faculty of Economics and Management, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Cali)

Abstract

Using a BVAR model and the data of the Monthly Economic Activity Indicator (IMAE), the effect of different monetary and external sector shocks on the cyclical growth of the department of Valle del Cauca is estimated, and compared with the effect of these same shocks on the national cycle. We found that the economy of the Valle del Cauca differs from the national average by presenting larger response to variations in the real exchange rate. This is precisely the factor that in a greater proportion -almost by 50 %- explains the higher growth of the economy of Valle del Cauca since the end of 2013. The estimates show the null effect that the changes in the price of oil have on the departmental growth andthe greater the impact on the economy of the Valley of the changes in the US GDP and the country risk. The version here presented corresponds to the updated study.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavel Vidal & Gilberto Ramírez & Lya Paola Sierra, 2018. "¿Por qué el Valle del Cauca ha crecido más que el promedio nacional? Un análisis regional de los ciclos y los choques económicos," Working Papers 33, Faculty of Economics and Management, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Cali.
  • Handle: RePEc:ddt:wpaper:33
    as

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    File URL: ftp://repec.javerianacali.edu.co/WorkingPapers/ddtn332018.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional; Monetary Policy; Transmission Mechanisms; BVAR; Valle del Cauca;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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