Defining and improving the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts : contributions from a VAR model
Thirty years ago it appeared that the best strategy for improving economic forecasts was to build bigger, more detailed models. As the costs of computing plummeted, considerable detail was added to models and more elaborate statistical techniques became feasible.
|Date of creation:||1984|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Journal of Business, April 1986, v, 59, no. 2, pp. 263-85.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.richmondfed.org/|
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- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Roy H. Webb, 1984. "Vector autoregressions as a tool for forecast evaluations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Jan, pages 3-11.
- Robert B. Litterman, 1984. "Specifying vector autoregressions for macroeconomic forecasting," Staff Report 92, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Robert B. Litterman, 1979. "Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions," Working Papers 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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