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Forecasting For Australian Agriculture

  • Freebairn, John W.

The paper provides a review of the objectives of forecasts and of the techniques for generating forecasts in the context of agriculture. Forecasts provide information to facilitate decision making. The techniques are evaluated in terms of assumptions about the processes generating the forecast variables, their relative requirements for time, data and other resources, and their relative forecast accuracy. An evaluation of naive, informal model and econometric model forecasts of Australian agricultural commodity prices and production levels is reported.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22334
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Article provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its journal Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 19 (1975)
Issue (Month): 03 (December)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:ajaeau:22334
Contact details of provider: Postal: AARES Central Office Manager, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU, Canberra ACT 0200
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  1. Harris, Stuart, 1974. "Changes In The Terms Of Trade For Agriculture: New Plateau Or New Precipice," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 18(02), August.
  2. Phoebus J. Dhrymes & E. Philip Howrey & Saul H. Hymans & Jan Kmenta & Edward E. Leamer & Richard E. Quandt & James B. Ramsey & Harold T. Shapiro & Victor Zarnowitz, 1972. "Criteria for Evaluation of Econometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 1, number 3, pages 291-324 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hayami, Yujiro & Peterson, Willis, 1972. "Social Returns to Public Information Services: Statistical Reporting of U. S. Farm Commodities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 119-30, March.
  4. Schmidt, Peter, 1974. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Forecasts in the Dynamic Simulation of an Econometric Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(2), pages 303-09, March.
  5. N.C. Mackrell, 1974. "Techniques of Short Term Forecasting," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp36, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  6. Christ, Carl F, 1975. "Judging the Performance of Econometric Models of the U.S. Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(1), pages 54-74, February.
  7. Norton, W E, 1972. "Forecasting with a Macroeconomic Model: An Introduction," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 48(121), pages 116-22, March.
  8. Howrey, E Philip & Klein, Lawrence R & McCarthy, Michael D, 1974. "Notes on Testing the Predictive Performance of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(2), pages 366-83, June.
  9. Feldstein, Martin S, 1971. "The Error of Forecast in Econometric Models when the Forecast-Period Exogenous Variables are Stochastic," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(1), pages 55-60, January.
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