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Forecasting For Australian Agriculture

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  • Freebairn, John W.

Abstract

The paper provides a review of the objectives of forecasts and of the techniques for generating forecasts in the context of agriculture. Forecasts provide information to facilitate decision making. The techniques are evaluated in terms of assumptions about the processes generating the forecast variables, their relative requirements for time, data and other resources, and their relative forecast accuracy. An evaluation of naive, informal model and econometric model forecasts of Australian agricultural commodity prices and production levels is reported.

Suggested Citation

  • Freebairn, John W., 1975. "Forecasting For Australian Agriculture," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 19(03), December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ajaeau:22334
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22334
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Feldstein, Martin S, 1971. "The Error of Forecast in Econometric Models when the Forecast-Period Exogenous Variables are Stochastic," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(1), pages 55-60, January.
    2. Christ, Carl F, 1975. "Judging the Performance of Econometric Models of the U.S. Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(1), pages 54-74, February.
    3. N.C. Mackrell, 1974. "Techniques of Short Term Forecasting," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp36, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Phoebus J. Dhrymes & E. Philip Howrey & Saul H. Hymans & Jan Kmenta & Edward E. Leamer & Richard E. Quandt & James B. Ramsey & Harold T. Shapiro & Victor Zarnowitz, 1972. "Criteria for Evaluation of Econometric Models," NBER Chapters,in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 1, number 3, pages 291-324 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Hayami, Yujiro & Peterson, Willis, 1972. "Social Returns to Public Information Services: Statistical Reporting of U. S. Farm Commodities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 119-130, March.
    6. Norton, W E, 1972. "Forecasting with a Macroeconomic Model: An Introduction," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 48(121), pages 116-122, March.
    7. Howrey, E Philip & Klein, Lawrence R & McCarthy, Michael D, 1974. "Notes on Testing the Predictive Performance of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(2), pages 366-383, June.
    8. Harris, Stuart, 1974. "Changes In The Terms Of Trade For Agriculture: New Plateau Or New Precipice," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 18(02), August.
    9. Schmidt, Peter, 1974. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Forecasts in the Dynamic Simulation of an Econometric Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(2), pages 303-309, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vere, David T. & Griffith, Garry R., 1995. "Forecasting in the Australian Lamb Industry: the Influence of Alternate Price Determination Processes," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(03), December.
    2. Vere, David T. & Griffith, Garry R., 1990. "Comparative Forecast Accuracy In The New South Wales Prime Lamb Market," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 34(02), August.
    3. Stent, W.R., 1976. "Critique Of The Methodology Of Australian Agricultural Economics," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 20(01), April.
    4. Kingwell, Ross S., 2002. "Issues for Farm Management in the 21st Century: A view from the West," 2002 Conference (46th), February 13-15, 2002, Canberra 173982, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    5. Jolly, L.O. & Wong, Gordon, 1987. "Composite Forecasting: some empirical results using BAE short-term forecasts," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(01), April.
    6. Freebairn, John W., 1978. "An Evaluation of Outlook Information for Australian Agricultural Commodities," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(03), December.
    7. Gellatly, Colin, 1979. "Forecasting N.S.W. Beef Production: An Evaluation of Alternative Techniques," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(02), August.
    8. repec:wsi:apjorx:v:34:y:2017:i:05:n:s0217595917500208 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Lee, B.M.S. & Bui-Lan, Anh, 1982. "Use Of Errors Of Prediction In Improving Forecast Accuracy: An Application To Wool In Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 26(01), April.
    10. Hardaker, J. Brian, 1985. "Beliefs And Values In Agricultural Economics Research," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 29(02), August.

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    Keywords

    Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

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