Composite Forecasting: some empirical results using BAE short-term forecasts
The contention advanced in this paper is that forecast performance could be improved if short-term commodity forecasters were to consider formally the use of a variety of forecasting methods, rather than seeking to improve one selected method. Many researchers have demonstrated that a linear combination of forecasts can produce a composite superior to the individual component forecasts. Using a case study of two Bureau of Agricultural Economics' forecast series and alternative, time series model forecasts of the same series, four methods of deriving composite forecasts are applied on an ex ante basis and are thus evaluated as a means of improving the Bureau's forecast performance. Despite the fact that the authors could not, by combining the available forecasts, form a superior composite forecast, the application highlights the suitability of this approach for reviewing the performance of forecasting methods on a formal basis, and did prove useful in exposing weaknesses and strengths in BAE market information forecasts which otherwise would not have come to light.
Volume (Year): 55 (1987)
Issue (Month): 01 (April)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 0409 032 338
Web page: http://www.aares.info/Email:
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Spyros Makridakis & Robert L. Winkler, 1983. "Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(9), pages 987-996, September.
- Lee, B.M.S. & Bui-Lan, Anh, 1982. "Use Of Errors Of Prediction In Improving Forecast Accuracy: An Application To Wool In Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 26(01), April.
- B.M.S. Lee & Anh Bui‐Lan, 1982. "Use Of Errors Of Prediction In Improving Forecast Accuracy: An Application To Wool In Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 26(1), pages 49-62, 04.
- Freebairn, John W., 1975. "Forecasting For Australian Agriculture," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 19(03), December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:remaae:12314. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.