IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/remaae/12314.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Composite Forecasting: some empirical results using BAE short-term forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Jolly, L.O.
  • Wong, Gordon

Abstract

The contention advanced in this paper is that forecast performance could be improved if short-term commodity forecasters were to consider formally the use of a variety of forecasting methods, rather than seeking to improve one selected method. Many researchers have demonstrated that a linear combination of forecasts can produce a composite superior to the individual component forecasts. Using a case study of two Bureau of Agricultural Economics' forecast series and alternative, time series model forecasts of the same series, four methods of deriving composite forecasts are applied on an ex ante basis and are thus evaluated as a means of improving the Bureau's forecast performance. Despite the fact that the authors could not, by combining the available forecasts, form a superior composite forecast, the application highlights the suitability of this approach for reviewing the performance of forecasting methods on a formal basis, and did prove useful in exposing weaknesses and strengths in BAE market information forecasts which otherwise would not have come to light.

Suggested Citation

  • Jolly, L.O. & Wong, Gordon, 1987. "Composite Forecasting: some empirical results using BAE short-term forecasts," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(01), April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:remaae:12314
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12314
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. B.M.S. Lee & Anh Buiā€Lan, 1982. "Use Of Errors Of Prediction In Improving Forecast Accuracy: An Application To Wool In Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 26(1), pages 49-62, April.
    2. Lee, B.M.S. & Bui-Lan, Anh, 1982. "Use Of Errors Of Prediction In Improving Forecast Accuracy: An Application To Wool In Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 26(01), April.
    3. Spyros Makridakis & Robert L. Winkler, 1983. "Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(9), pages 987-996, September.
    4. John W. Freebairn, 1975. "Forecasting For Australian Agriculture," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 19(3), pages 154-174, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vere, David T. & Griffith, Garry R., 1990. "Comparative Forecast Accuracy In The New South Wales Prime Lamb Market," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 34(02), August.
    2. J. M. Gil & L. M. Albisu, 1993. "Composite Forecasting Methods: An Application To Spanish Maize Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 264-271.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:remaae:12314. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/aaresea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.