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Economic Forecasts and Their Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • I.J. Macfarlane

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • J.R. Hawkins

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

This paper looks at the accuracy of economic forecasts and whether it is possible to rank different forecasters by their degree of accuracy. The first section examines the accuracy of economic forecasts in general and by examining a subset of twelve Australian forecasters over a five year period. The second section addresses the question of whether it is possible to rank forecasters in order of merit. The paper concludes that the problems are sufficiently large for it to be unlikely that a meaningful and stable ranking could be obtained.

Suggested Citation

  • I.J. Macfarlane & J.R. Hawkins, 1983. "Economic Forecasts and Their Assessment," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp8302, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp8302
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    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1983/8302.html
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Ewing & David Gruen & John Hawkins, 2005. "Forecasting the macro economy," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 2, pages 11-25, June.
    2. Jocelyn Horne, 1983. "The Money Formation Table Approach to Forecasting: An Evaluation of the Institute Money Supply Forecasts," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 16(4), pages 69-77, December.

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