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On the Accuracy and Properties of Recent Macroeconomic Forecasts

  • Victor Zarnowitz
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    The aim of this study is to contribute to the measurement and analysis of errors in economists' predictions of changes in aggregate income, output, and the price level. Small sample studies of forecasts can be instructive, but their limitations must be recognized. Compilation of consistent forecast records extending over longer periods of tine is necessary to establish a reasonably reliable base for assessments of forecasting behavior and. performance. Thus the historical record of post-World War II forecasts assembled in the 1960's by the NBER is here extended and updated.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0229.pdf
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    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0229.

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    Date of creation: Jan 1978
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: published as American Economic Review, Vol. 68, no. 2 (1978): 313-319.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0229
    Note: EFG
    Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
    Phone: 617-868-3900
    Web page: http://www.nber.org
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    1. Michael K. Evans & Lawrence R. Klein & Mitsuo Saito & Michael D. McCarthy, 1972. "Short-Run Prediction and Long-Run Simulation of the Wharton Model," NBER Chapters, in: Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, Volumes 1 and 2, pages 139-200 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Gary Fromm & Lawrence R. Klein, 1976. "THE NBER/NSF Model Comparison Seminar: An Analysis of Results," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 1, pages 1-28 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Samuelson, Paul A, 1976. "Optimality of Sluggish Predictors under Ergodic Probabilities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-7, February.
    4. Duggal, Vijaya G & Klein, Lawrence R & McCarthy, Michael D, 1974. "The Wharton Model Mark III: A Modern IS-LM Construct," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(3), pages 572-94, October.
    5. Hatanaka, Michio, 1975. "The Underestimation of Variations in the Forecast Series: A Note," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(1), pages 151-60, February.
    6. Christ, Carl F, 1975. "Judging the Performance of Econometric Models of the U.S. Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(1), pages 54-74, February.
    7. L. R. Klein, 1946. "A Post-Mortem on Transition Predictions of National Product," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54, pages 289.
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