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On the Accuracy and Properties of Recent Macroeconomic Forecasts

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  • Victor Zarnowitz

Abstract

The aim of this study is to contribute to the measurement and analysis of errors in economists' predictions of changes in aggregate income, output, and the price level. Small sample studies of forecasts can be instructive, but their limitations must be recognized. Compilation of consistent forecast records extending over longer periods of tine is necessary to establish a reasonably reliable base for assessments of forecasting behavior and. performance. Thus the historical record of post-World War II forecasts assembled in the 1960's by the NBER is here extended and updated.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Zarnowitz, 1978. "On the Accuracy and Properties of Recent Macroeconomic Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 0229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0229
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    1. Michael K. Evans & Lawrence R. Klein & Mitsuo Saito & Michael D. McCarthy, 1972. "Short-Run Prediction and Long-Run Simulation of the Wharton Model," NBER Chapters,in: Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, Volumes 1 and 2, pages 139-200 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Christ, Carl F, 1975. "Judging the Performance of Econometric Models of the U.S. Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(1), pages 54-74, February.
    3. Gary Fromm & Lawrence R. Klein, 1976. "THE NBER/NSF Model Comparison Seminar: An Analysis of Results," NBER Chapters,in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 1, pages 1-28 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Samuelson, Paul A, 1976. "Optimality of Sluggish Predictors under Ergodic Probabilities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-7, February.
    5. Hatanaka, Michio, 1975. "The Underestimation of Variations in the Forecast Series: A Note," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(1), pages 151-160, February.
    6. L. R. Klein, 1946. "A Post-Mortem on Transition Predictions of National Product," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54, pages 289-289.
    7. Duggal, Vijaya G & Klein, Lawrence R & McCarthy, Michael D, 1974. "The Wharton Model Mark III: A Modern IS-LM Construct," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(3), pages 572-594, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2004. "History of macroeconometric modelling: lessons from past experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 265-281, February.
    2. Carlos Capistrán & Gabriel López-Moctezuma, 2008. "Experts´ Macroeconomics Expectations: An Evaluation of Mexican Short-Run Forecasts," Working Papers 2008-11, Banco de México.
    3. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2005. "Macroeconometric Modelling: Approaches and Experiences in Developing Countries," Economics Working Papers wp05-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    4. Valadkhani, A., 2005. "Macroeconomic Modelling: Approaches and Experiences in Development Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(1).
    5. Karine Bouthevillain & Alexandre Mathis, 1995. "Prévisions : mesures, erreurs et principaux résultats," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 285(1), pages 89-100.
    6. Didier Borowski & Carine Bouthevillain & Catherine Doz & Pierre Malgrange & Pierre Morin, 1991. "Vingt ans de prévisions macro-économiques : une évaluation sur données françaises," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 99(3), pages 43-65.
    7. Capistrán, Carlos & López-Moctezuma, Gabriel, 2010. "Las expectativas macroeconómicas de los especialistas. Una evaluación de pronósticos de corto plazo en México," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(306), pages 275-312, abril-jun.
    8. Alain Fonteneau, 1982. "La fiabilité des prévisions macroéconomiques à court terme : 12 ans d'expériences françaises (1970-1981)," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 2(1), pages 69-111.
    9. Karine Bouthevillain, 1993. "La prévision macro-économique : précision relative et consensus," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 108(2), pages 97-126.

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