IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uow/depec1/wp05-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconometric Modelling: Approaches and Experiences in Developing Countries

Author

Abstract

This paper selectively reviews various approaches of macroeconometric modelling and highlights some important lessons from more than half a century of model-building particularly in the context of Asian countries. Addressing several issues discussed in this paper can improve the use of macroeconometric models (MEM) in forecasting and policy analysis in the foreseeable future. This survey shows that most MEMs in developing countries are either becoming smaller in size or not being subject to a thorough diagnostic investigation. In the specification of models one should consider the interplay among macroeconomic policies of different countries via international trade and global financial markets. It is argued that the Project Link and the Fair multi-country model are two initiatives in the right direction. It also appears that with advancement of econometric "know-how", the disparity of opinions between advocates and critics of macroeconometric modelling can be narrowed.

Suggested Citation

  • Valadkhani, Abbas, 2005. "Macroeconometric Modelling: Approaches and Experiences in Developing Countries," Economics Working Papers wp05-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp05-10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@commerce/@econ/documents/doc/uow012193.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sushanta Mallick, 2004. "A dynamic macroeconometric model for short-run stabilization in India," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 261-276.
    2. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 207-237, April.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1988. "Recent developments in macroeconomics: a very quick refresher course," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 436-458.
    4. Victor Zarnowitz, 1978. "On the Accuracy and Properties of Recent Macroeconomic Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 0229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jere R. Behrman & James Hanson, 1979. "Short-Term Macroeconomic Policy in Latin America," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number behr79-1.
    6. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2004. "History of macroeconometric modelling: lessons from past experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 265-281, February.
    7. Hall, Stephen, 1995. "Macroeconomics and a Bit More Reality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 974-988, July.
    8. Francis X. Diebold, 1998. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 175-192, Spring.
    9. Capros, P. & Karadeloglou, P. & Mentzas, G., 1990. "An empirical assessment of macroeconometric and CGE approaches in policy modeling," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 557-585.
    10. Bodkin, Ronald G. & Marwah, Kanta, 1988. "Trends in macroeconomic modeling: The past quarter century," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 299-315.
    11. Ronald G. Bodkin & Lawrence R. Klein & Kanta Marwah, 1991. "A History of Macroeconometric Model-Building," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 51.
    12. Willman, Alpo & Kortelainen, Mika & Mannisto, Hanna-Leena & Tujula, Mika, 2000. "The BOF5 macroeconomic model of Finland, structure and dynamic microfoundations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 275-303, April.
    13. Shan Jordan, 2002. "A Macroeconometric Model of Income Disparity in China," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 47-63.
    14. Fair, Ray C, 1974. "An Evaluation of a Short-Run Forecasting Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(2), pages 285-303, June.
    15. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1978. "On the Accuracy and Properties of Recent Macroeconomic Forecasts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 313-319, May.
    16. Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2004. "An index of openness and its relationship with growth in India," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 38(1), pages 37-54, September.
    17. Sastry, V K, 1975. "The Use of Macroeconomic Regression Models of Developing Countries: A Comment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 156-165, March.
    18. Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2003. "Interactions between large macro models and time series analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 1-10.
    19. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconometric modelling; Asian Developing Countries;

    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp05-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Siminski). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/deuowau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.