A dynamic macroeconometric model for short-run stabilization in India
A small macroeconometric model examining the determinants of India's trade and inflation is developed to address the effects of a reform policy package similar to those implemented in 1991. This is different from the previous studies in two important respects. First, inflation has been modelled in an open economy context, and second, the non-stationarity of the data into the model and estimation procedures has been explicitly incorporated, suggesting that the stationarity assumption in earlier studies may be a source of misspecification. The model in this paper has been estimated using data from 1950 to 1995 employing fully modified Phillips-Hansen method of estimation to obtain the cointegrating relations and the short-run dynamic model. Policy simulations using dynamic simulation method compare the responses to devaluation with the responses to tight credit policy. It is shown that the trade balance effects of tight credit policy are more enduring than that of devaluation. The simulations demonstrate that the devaluation actually worsens trade balance and hence devaluation cannot be an option in response to a negative trade shock, whereas the reduction in domestic credit reflecting demand contraction produces a desirable improvement in the trade balance.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 1989.
- Kamal Upadhyaya & Dharmendra Dhakal, 1997. "Devaluation and the trade balance: estimating the long run effect," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 343-345.
- Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990.
"Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
- Tom Doan, . "FM: RATS procedure to estimate cointegrating vectors using Fully Modified Least Squares," Statistical Software Components RTS00069, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Sedgley, Nigel & Smith, Jeremy, 1994. "An Analysis of UK Imports Using Multivariate Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(2), pages 135-50, May.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- James G. MacKinnon, 1990.
"Critical Values for Cointegration Tests,"
1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "EGTEST: RATS procedure to compute Engle-Granger test for Cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTS00061, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Lucas, Robert E. B., 1988. "Demand for India's manufactured exports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 63-75, July.
- Basanta Pradhan & A. Subramanian, 1998. "Money and prices : some evidence from India," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 821-827.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:3:p:261-276. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.