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Are inflation targets good inflation forecasts?

Author

Listed:
  • Marie Diron
  • Benoit Mojon

Abstract

The authors show that quantified inflation objectives, which have been adopted by many industrialized countries, can be used as rule-of-thumb forecasting devices. Remarkably, they yield smaller forecast errors than widely used forecasting models and the forecasts of professional experts.

Suggested Citation

  • Marie Diron & Benoit Mojon, 2008. "Are inflation targets good inflation forecasts?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 32(Q II), pages 33-45.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2008:i:qii:p:33-45:n:v.32no.2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    8. Kapetanios, George & Labhard, Vincent & Price, Simon, 2008. "Forecast combination and the Bank of England's suite of statistical forecasting models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 772-792, July.
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    10. Mr. Scott Roger & Mr. Mark R. Stone, 2005. "On Target? the International Experience with Achieving Inflation Targets," IMF Working Papers 2005/163, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Salisu, Afees A. & Ademuyiwa, Idris & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Revisiting the forecasting accuracy of Phillips curve: The role of oil price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 334-356.
    2. Kazeem O. Isah & Abdulkader C. Mahomedy & Elias A. Udeaja & Ojo J. Adelakun & Yusuf Yakubu & Danmecca Musa, 2022. "Revisiting the accuracy of inflation forecasts in Nigeria: The oil price–exchange rate–asymmetry perspectives," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 329-348, September.
    3. Faisal Rachman, 2016. "Is Inflation Target Announced by Bank Indonesia the Most Accurate Inflation Forecast?," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, vol. 62, pages 98-120, August.
    4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips curve inflation forecasts," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    5. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(4), pages 771-789, June.
    6. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
    7. George A. Kahn, 2009. "Beyond inflation targeting: should central banks target the price level?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q III), pages 35-64.
    8. Marek Jarociński & Michele Lenza, 2018. "An Inflation‐Predicting Measure of the Output Gap in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1224, September.
    9. In Choi & Seong Jin Hwang, 2012. "Forecasting Korean inflation," Working Papers 1202, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    10. Simon Richards & Matthieu Verstraete, 2016. "Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," Staff Working Papers 16-7, Bank of Canada.
    11. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary policy, imperfect information and the expectations channel [Politique monétaire,information imparfaite et canal des anticipations]," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) tel-04095385, HAL.
    12. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Simon Richards & Matthieu Verstraete, 2016. "Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 6090, CESifo.
    14. Manganelli, Simone, 2018. "Selecting models with judgment," Working Paper Series 2188, European Central Bank.

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