Federal Reserve information during the great moderation
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Antonello D'Agostino & Karl Whelan, 2008. "Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 609-620, 04-05.
- Antonello D'Agostino & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Federal Reserve Information during the great moderation," Working Papers 200722, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Whelan, Karl, 2007. "Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/07, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Karl Whelan & Antonello D'Agostino, 2008. "Federal Reserve information during the great moderation," Open Access publications 10197/252, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- D'Agostino, A & Whelan, K, 2007. "Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 6092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
References listed on IDEAS
- Ben S. Bernanke, 2006. "Reflections on the yield curve and monetary policy," Speech 175, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Faust Jon & Swanson Eric T & Wright Jonathan H, 2004. "Do Federal Reserve Policy Surprises Reveal Superior Information about the Economy?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-31, October.
- David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
- Christopher A. Sims, 2002. "The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 1-62.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007.
"Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Paolo Surico, 2005.
"(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability,"
Macroeconomics
0510024, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Domenico, Giannone & Surico, Paolo, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Surico, Paolo & Giannone, Domenico & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and macroeconomic stability," Working Paper Series 605, European Central Bank.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico & Surico, Paolo, 2007. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 6594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2006:i:mar20 is not listed on IDEAS
- Peter Tulip, 2005. "Has output become more predictable? changes in Greenbook forecast accuracy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-31, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 25(Win), pages 2-11.
- Campbell, Sean D., 2007. "Macroeconomic Volatility, Predictability, and Uncertainty in the Great Moderation: Evidence From the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 191-200, April.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Revisiting the relative forecast performances of Fed staff and private forecasters: A dynamic approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 313-323.
- El-Shagi, Makram, 2019. "Rationality tests in the presence of instabilities in finite samples," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 242-246.
- repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3pot7260lh88lrfhrhvs85lh2f is not listed on IDEAS
- Paul Hubert, 2015.
"Revisiting the Greenbook’s relative forecasting performance,"
Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 151-179.
- Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," Post-Print hal-01087522, HAL.
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9, Sciences Po.
- Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone, 2017.
"The Effectiveness of Non‐Standard Monetary Policy Measures: Evidence from Survey Data,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 952-964, August.
- Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures: Evidence from Survey Data," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-30, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Altavilla, Carlo & Giannone, Domenico, 2016. "The effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy measures: evidence from survey data," Working Paper Series 1951, European Central Bank.
- Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone, 2014. "The effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy measures: evidence from survey data," Working Papers CASMEF 1406, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
- Altavilla, Carlo & Giannone, Domenico, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures: Evidence from Survey Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 10001, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone, 2015. "The effectiveness of nonstandard monetary policy measures: evidence from survey data," Staff Reports 752, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we go now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Working Papers 2009-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Liebermann, Joelle, 2012.
"Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment,"
MPRA Paper
39452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," Research Technical Papers 07/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
- João Valle e Azevedo, 2011.
"Rational vs. professional forecasts,"
Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- João Valle e Azevedo & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Rational vs. Professional Forecasts," Working Papers w201114, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Ásgeir Daníelsson, 2008. "The great moderation Icelandic style," Economics wp38, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
- Zidong An & João Tovar Jalles, 2020. "On the Performance of US Fiscal Forecasts: Government vs. Private Information," Working Papers REM 2020/0130, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
- Muto, Ichiro, 2013.
"Productivity growth, transparency, and monetary policy,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 329-344.
- Ichiro Muto, 2007. "Productivity Growth, Transparency, and Monetary Policy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-08, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Jung, Alexander, 2012.
"Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?,"
IWH Discussion Papers
5/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2013. "Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79925, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Henning Fischer & Marta García-Bárzana & Peter Tillmann & Peter Winker, 2014.
"Evaluating FOMC forecast ranges: an interval data approach,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 365-388, August.
- Henning Fischer & Marta García-Bárzana & Peter Tillmann & Peter Winker, 2012. "Evaluating FOMC forecast ranges: an interval data approach," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201213, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
- Gamber, Edward N. & Liebner, Jeffrey P. & Smith, Julie K., 2015. "The distribution of inflation forecast errors," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 47-64.
- Paul Hubert, 2015.
"Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(4), pages 771-789, June.
- Paul Hubert, 2009. "Informational Advantage and Influence of Communicating Central Banks," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Paul Hubert, 2011. "Do central banks forecast influence private agents ? Forecasting performance vs. signals," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-20, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2014. "Does the federal reserve staff still beat private forecasters?," Working Paper Series 1635, European Central Bank.
- Ásgeir Daníelsson, 2008. "Accuracy in forecasting macroeconomic variables in Iceland," Economics wp39, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
- Christopher A. Hollrah & Steven A. Sharpe & Nitish R. Sinha, 2017. "What's the Story? A New Perspective on the Value of Economic Forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-107, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Imperfect Information and the Expectations Channel," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
- repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
- Kishor N. Kundan, 2010. "The Superiority of Greenbook Forecasts and the Role of Recessions," NBP Working Papers 74, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
- Christopher A. Hollrah & Steven A. Sharpe & Nitish R. Sinha, 2020. "The Power of Narratives in Economic Forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-001, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Paul Hubert, 2015.
"Revisiting the Greenbook’s relative forecasting performance,"
Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 151-179.
- Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," Post-Print hal-01087522, HAL.
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9, Sciences Po.
- repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3pot7260lh88lrfhrhvs85lh2f is not listed on IDEAS
- Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K., 2009.
"Are the Fed's inflation forecasts still superior to the private sector's?,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, June.
- Edward N. Gamber & Julie K. Smith, 2007. "Are the Fed’s Inflation Forecasts Still Superior to the Private Sector’s?," Working Papers 2007-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Jul 2008.
- Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2010.
"A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 720-754.
- Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2009. "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2009. "A Comparison Of Forecast Performance Between Federal Reserve Staff Forecasts, Simple Reduced-Form Models, And A Dsge Model," CAMA Working Papers 2009-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Paul Hubert, 2015.
"Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(4), pages 771-789, June.
- Paul Hubert, 2009. "Informational Advantage and Influence of Communicating Central Banks," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Paul Hubert, 2011. "Do central banks forecast influence private agents ? Forecasting performance vs. signals," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-20, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K. & McNamara, Dylan C., 2014. "Where is the Fed in the distribution of forecasters?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 296-312.
- Peter Tulip, 2009. "Has the Economy Become More Predictable? Changes in Greenbook Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1217-1231, September.
- David L. Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2007. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook from historical forecasting errors," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Bedri Kamil Onur Taş, 2016. "Does the Federal Reserve have Private Information about its Future Actions?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(331), pages 498-517, July.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010.
"Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29, January.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Papers 2008-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.),Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
- Liu, Dandan & Smith, Julie K., 2014. "Inflation forecasts and core inflation measures: Where is the information on future inflation?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 133-137.
- Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Efficient forecast tests for conditional policy forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 293-303, October.
- Elmar Mertens, 2016.
"Managing Beliefs about Monetary Policy under Discretion,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 661-698, June.
- Elmar Mertens, 2008. "Managing Beliefs about Monetary Policy under Discretion?," Working Papers 08.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
- Elmar Mertens, 2010. "Managing beliefs about monetary policy under discretion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we go now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Working Papers 2009-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts using a Large Realtime Dataset," NBER Working Papers 13397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Antonello D’Agostino & Kieran Mcquinn & Karl Whelan, 2012.
"Are Some Forecasters Really Better Than Others?,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(4), pages 715-732, June.
- Antonello D’agostino & Kieran Mcquinn & Karl Whelan, 2012. "Are Some Forecasters Really Better Than Others?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(4), pages 715-732, June.
- Antonello D'Agostino & Kieran McQuinn & Karl Whelan, 2010. "Are some forecasters really better than others?," Working Papers 201012, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & Whelan, Karl, 2010. "Are Some Forecasters Really Better Than Others?," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/10, Central Bank of Ireland.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & Whelan, Karl, 2011. "Are some forecasters really better than others?," MPRA Paper 32938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2013.
"Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 82-101, January.
- Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," Working Papers ECARES 2009_020, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Giannone, Domenico & D'Agostino, Antonello & Gambetti, Luca, 2010. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change," Working Paper Series 1167, European Central Bank.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Gambetti, Luca & Giannone, Domenico & Giannone, Domenico, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/09, Central Bank of Ireland.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Gambetti, Luca & Giannone, Domenico, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 7542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2008.
"The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 667-699, June.
- Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 667-699, June.
- Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: from Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 78, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Discussion Paper Series 0715, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
- Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: from Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0631, Economics, The University of Manchester.
- Vugar Ahmadov & Shaig Adigozalov & Salman Huseynov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2016. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for non-linear models?," Working Papers 1601, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
More about this item
Keywords
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.); Inflation (Finance); Economic forecasting;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucn:oapubs:10197/235. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nicolas Clifton). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/educdie.html .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.