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Walk on the Wild Side: Temporarily Unstable Paths and Multiplicative Sunspots

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  • Guido Ascari
  • Paolo Bonomolo
  • Hedibert F. Lopes

Abstract

We propose a generalization of the rational expectations framework to allow for temporarily unstable paths. Our approach introduces multiplicative sunspot shocks and it yields drifting parameters and stochastic volatility. Then, we provide an econometric strategy to estimate this generalized model on the data. The methodology allows the data to choose between different possible alternatives: determinacy, indeterminacy, and temporary instability. We apply our methodology to US inflation dynamics in the 1970s through the lens of a simple New Keynesian model. When temporarily unstable paths are allowed, the data unambiguously select them to explain the stagflation period in the 1970s.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Ascari & Paolo Bonomolo & Hedibert F. Lopes, 2019. "Walk on the Wild Side: Temporarily Unstable Paths and Multiplicative Sunspots," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1805-1842, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:109:y:2019:i:5:p:1805-42
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20160576
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1979. "Backward and Forward Solutions for Economies with Rational Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 114-118, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kollmann, Robert, 2020. "Rational Bubbles in Non-Linear Business Cycle Models: Closed and Open Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 14367, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Haque, Qazi & Groshenny, Nicolas & Weder, Mark, 2021. "Do we really know that U.S. monetary policy was destabilizing in the 1970s?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Qazi Haque, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Target and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," School of Economics Working Papers 2017-13, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    4. Elmar Mertens & Christian Matthes & Thomas Lubik, 2017. "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information," 2017 Meeting Papers 337, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Wang, Hanjie & Feil, Jan-Henning & Yu, Xiaohua, 2021. "Disagreement on sunspots and soybeans futures price," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 385-393.
    6. Dave, Chetan & Sorge, Marco M., 2020. "Sunspot-driven fat tails: A note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    7. J. Daniel Aromí & Martín Llada, 2020. "Forecasting inflation with twitter," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4308, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    8. Dave, Chetan & Sorge, Marco, 2020. "Equilibrium Indeterminacy and Extreme Outcomes: A Fat Sunspot Ta(i)l(e)," Working Papers 2020-12, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    9. Giovanni Nicolo, 2020. "Monetary Policy, Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the U.S. Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-035, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 255-274, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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