IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jmacro/v46y2015icp160-169.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Refining linear rational expectations models and equilibria

Author

Listed:
  • Cho, Seonghoon
  • McCallum, Bennett T.

Abstract

This paper develops the case for forward convergence as a model refinement scheme for linear rational expectations models and an associated no-bubble condition as a solution selection criterion. We relate these two concepts to determinacy and characterize the complete set of economically relevant rational expectations solutions to the linear rational expectations models under determinacy and indeterminacy. Our results show (1) why a determinate solution is economically cogent in most, but not all, cases, and (2) that those models that are not forward-convergent have no economically relevant solutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Cho, Seonghoon & McCallum, Bennett T., 2015. "Refining linear rational expectations models and equilibria," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 160-169.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:46:y:2015:i:c:p:160-169
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.09.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016407041500110X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.09.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
    2. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    3. McCallum, Bennett T., 2007. "E-stability vis-a-vis determinacy results for a broad class of linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1376-1391, April.
    4. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1998. "The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1015-1026, November.
    5. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
    6. Bennett T. McCallum, 2012. "Determinacy, Learnability, Plausibility, and the Role of Money in New Keynesian Models," NBER Working Papers 18215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
    8. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
    9. McCallum, Bennett T., 2012. "The Role of Money in New-Keynesian Models," Working Papers 2012-019, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    10. Cho, Seonghoon & Moreno, Antonio, 2011. "The forward method as a solution refinement in rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 257-272, March.
    11. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1979. "Backward and Forward Solutions for Economies with Rational Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 114-118, May.
    12. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "An Economic Theory of Monetary Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 24-58, February.
    13. Luis Viceira & Carolin Pflueger & John Campbell, 2014. "Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," 2014 Meeting Papers 137, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Cho, Seonghoon & McCallum, Bennett T., 2009. "Another weakness of "determinacy" as a selection criterion for rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 17-19, July.
    15. Driskill, Robert, 2006. "Multiple equilibria in dynamic rational expectations models: A critical review," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 171-210, January.
    16. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2004. "Are non-fundamental equilibria learnable in models of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1743-1770, November.
    17. McCallum, Bennett T., 1998. "Solutions to linear rational expectations models: a compact exposition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 143-147, November.
    18. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2020. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(8), pages 3148-3185.
    19. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    20. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cho, Seonghoon, 2021. "Determinacy and classification of Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    2. Dennis Bonam & Bart Hobijn, 2021. "Generalized Stability of Monetary Unions Under Regime Switching in Monetary and Fiscal Policies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 73-94, February.
    3. Seonghoon Cho, 2016. "Sufficient Conditions for Determinacy in a Class of Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 182-200, July.
    4. Cuadra, Gabriel & Menna, Lorenzo, 2019. "Capital flows and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cho, Seonghoon & Moreno, Antonio, 2011. "The forward method as a solution refinement in rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 257-272, March.
    2. Bennett T. McCallum, 2009. "Indeterminancy from inflation forecast targeting : problem or pseudo-problem?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 95(Win), pages 25-51.
    3. Baele, Lieven & Bekaert, Geert & Cho, Seonghoon & Inghelbrecht, Koen & Moreno, Antonio, 2015. "Macroeconomic regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 51-71.
    4. Hatcher, Michael, 2022. "Solving linear rational expectations models in the presence of structural change: Some extensions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Thomas Lubik & Christian Matthes & Elmar Mertens, 2023. "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 37-57, July.
    6. Frank Hespeler, 2012. "On Boundary Conditions Within the Solution of Macroeconomic Dynamic Models with Rational Expectations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(3), pages 265-291, October.
    7. Bennett T. Mccallum, 2011. "Causality, Structure And The Uniqueness Of Rational Expectations Equilibria," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s1), pages 551-566, June.
    8. Cho, Seonghoon, 2021. "Determinacy and classification of Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    9. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-681.
    10. Bennett T. McCallum, 2010. "Indeterminacy, Causality, and the Foundations of Monetary Policy Analysis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 107-120, March.
    11. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2008. "Investment, interest rate policy, and equilibrium stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1489-1516, May.
    12. McCallum, Bennett T., 2007. "E-stability vis-a-vis determinacy results for a broad class of linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1376-1391, April.
    13. Thomas Lubik & Christian Matthes & Elmar Mertens, 2023. "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 37-57, July.
    14. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    15. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2007. "The Forward Solution for Linear Rational Expectations Models," Faculty Working Papers 07/07, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    16. Bennett T. McCallum, 2012. "A Continuity Refinement for Rational Expectations Solutions," NBER Working Papers 18323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Frank Hespeler, 2008. "Solution Algorithm to a Class of Monetary Rational Equilibrium Macromodels with Optimal Monetary Policy Design," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(3), pages 207-223, April.
    18. Patrick Minford & Naveen Srinivasan, 2015. "Can the Learnability Criterion Ensure Determinacy in New Keynesian Models?," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 4(1), pages 43-61, June.
    19. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2006. "Solving linear difference systems with lagged expectations by a method of undetermined coefficients," Working Papers 2006-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    20. Kurozumi, Takushi, 2006. "Determinacy and expectational stability of equilibrium in a monetary sticky-price model with Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 827-846, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Determinacy; Forward convergence; No-bubble condition; Rational expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:46:y:2015:i:c:p:160-169. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.