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Rational Bubbles in Non-Linear Business Cycle Models: Closed and Open Economies

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  • Robert Kollmann

Abstract

This paper studies rational bubbles in non-linear dynamic general equilibrium models of the macroeconomy. The term ‘Rational bubble’ refers to multiple equilibria due to the absence of a transversality condition (TVC) for capital. The lack of TVC can be due to an OLG population structure. If a TVC is imposed, the macro models considered here have a unique solution. Bubbles reflect self-fulfilling fluctuations in agents’ expectations about future investment. In contrast to explosive rational bubbles in linearized models (Blanchard (1979)), the rational bubbles in non-linear models here are bounded. Bounded rational bubbles provide a novel perspective on the drivers and mechanisms of business cycles. I construct bubbles (in non-linear models) that feature recurrent boom-bust cycles characterized by persistent investment and output expansions which are followed by abrupt contractions in real activity. Both closed and open economies are analyzed. In a non-linear two-country model with integrated financial markets, bubbles must be perfectly correlated across countries. Global bubbles may, thus, help to explain the synchronization of international business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Kollmann, 2020. "Rational Bubbles in Non-Linear Business Cycle Models: Closed and Open Economies," Working Papers ECARES 2020-02, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/301557
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    Keywords

    rational bubbles; boom-bust cycles; business cycles in closed and open economies; non-linear DSGE models; Long-Plosser model; Dellas model;

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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