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Exchange Rates Dynamics with Long-Run Risk and Recursive Preferences

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  • Robert Kollmann

Abstract

Standard macro models cannot explain why real exchange rates are volatile anddisconnected from macro aggregates. Recent research argues that models with persistentgrowth rate shocks and recursive preferences can solve that puzzle. I show that this resultis highly sensitive to the structure of financial markets. When just a bond is tradedinternationally, then long-run risk generates insufficient exchange rate volatility. A longrunrisk model with recursive-preferences can generate realistic exchange rate volatility,if all agents efficiently share their consumption risk by trading in complete financialmarkets; however, this entails massive international wealth transfers, and excessiveswings in net foreign asset positions. By contrast, a long-run risk, recursive-preferencesmodel in which only a fraction of households trades in complete markets, while theremaining households lead hand-to-mouth lives, can generate realistic exchange rate andexternal balance volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Kollmann, 2014. "Exchange Rates Dynamics with Long-Run Risk and Recursive Preferences," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-49, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/177116
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    Cited by:

    1. Islamaj, Ergys & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2016. "How does the sensitivity of consumption to income vary over time? International evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 169-179.
    2. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    3. Backus, David & Coleman, Chase & Ferriere, Axelle & Lyon, Spencer, 2016. "Pareto weights as wedges in two-country models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 98-110.
    4. Robert Kollmann, 2017. "Explaining international business cycle synchronization: Recursive preferences and the terms of trade channel," CAMA Working Papers 2017-21, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Kollmann, Robert, 2015. "Risk Sharing in a World Economy with Uncertainty Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 10940, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Kollmann, Robert, 2016. "International business cycles and risk sharing with uncertainty shocks and recursive preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 115-124.
    7. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Donadelli, Michael & Varani, Alessia, 2015. "International capital markets structure, preferences and puzzles: A “US–China World”," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 85-99.
    8. Robert Kollmann, 2017. "Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization," 2017 Meeting Papers 1489, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Michael Siemer & Adrien Verdelhan & Francois Gourio, 2015. "Uncertainty and International Capital Flows," 2015 Meeting Papers 880, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Robert Kollmann, 2016. "Risk Sharing, the Exchange Rate and Net Foreign Assets in a World Economy with Uncertainty Shocks," 2016 Meeting Papers 721, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Dmitriev, Alexandre, 2017. "Composite habits and international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-34.
    12. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2016. "Volatility Co-movement and the Great Moderation. An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 804, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; long-run risk; recursive preferences; complete financial markets; financial frictions; international risk sharing;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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