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Exchange Rates Dynamics with Long-Run Risk and Recursive Preferences

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  • Robert Kollmann

Abstract

Standard macro models fail to explain why real exchange rates are volatile and disconnected from macro aggregates. Recent research argues that models with persistent growth rate shocks and recursive preferences can solve that puzzle. I show that this result is highly sensitive to the structure of financial markets. When just a bond is traded internationally, then long-run risk generates insufficient exchange rate volatility. A long-run risk model with recursive preferences may generate realistic exchange rate volatility, if all agents efficiently share their consumption risk by trading in complete financial markets; however, this entails massive international wealth transfers, and excessive swings in net foreign asset positions. By contrast, a long-run risk, recursive-preferences model in which only a fraction of households trades in complete markets, while the remaining households lead hand-to-mouth lives, can generate realistic exchange rate and external balance volatility. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Kollmann, 2015. "Exchange Rates Dynamics with Long-Run Risk and Recursive Preferences," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 175-196, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:26:y:2015:i:2:p:175-196
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-014-9337-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    2. Lindé, Jesper & Pescatori, Andrea, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of trade tariffs: Revisiting the Lerner symmetry result," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 52-69.
    3. Kollmann, Robert, 2015. "Risk Sharing in a World Economy with Uncertainty Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 10940, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Robert Kollmann, 2019. "Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization: Recursive Preferences and the Terms of Trade Channel," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 65-85, February.
    5. Michael Siemer & Adrien Verdelhan & Francois Gourio, 2015. "Uncertainty and International Capital Flows," 2015 Meeting Papers 880, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Curatola, Giuliano & Donadelli, Michael & Grüning, Patrick, 2017. "Technology trade with asymmetric tax regimes and heterogeneous labor markets: Implications for macro quantities and asset prices," SAFE Working Paper Series 163, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    7. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2016. "Volatility Co-movement and the Great Moderation. An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 804, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    8. Islamaj, Ergys & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2016. "How does the sensitivity of consumption to income vary over time? International evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 169-179.
    9. Croitorov, Olga & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2020. "Financial spillover and global risk in a multi-region model of the world economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 185-218.
    10. Kollmann, Robert, 2016. "International business cycles and risk sharing with uncertainty shocks and recursive preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 115-124.
    11. Gianluca Femminis, 2019. "Risk aversion heterogeneity and the investment–uncertainty relationship," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 223-264, August.
    12. Backus, David & Coleman, Chase & Ferriere, Axelle & Lyon, Spencer, 2016. "Pareto weights as wedges in two-country models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 98-110.
    13. Islamaj,Ergys & Kose,Ayhan, 2016. "How does the sensitivity of consumption to income vary over time? international evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7659, The World Bank.
    14. Robert Kollmann, 2016. "Risk Sharing, the Exchange Rate and Net Foreign Assets in a World Economy with Uncertainty Shocks," 2016 Meeting Papers 721, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Donadelli, Michael & Varani, Alessia, 2015. "International capital markets structure, preferences and puzzles: A “US–China World”," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 85-99.
    16. Robert Kollmann, 2017. "Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization," 2017 Meeting Papers 1489, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Dmitriev, Alexandre, 2017. "Composite habits and international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-34.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Long-run risk; Recursive preferences; Complete financial markets; Financial frictions; International risk sharing; F31; F36; F41; F43; F44;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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