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Risk Sharing in a World Economy with Uncertainty Shocks

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  • Robert Kollmann

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of output volatility shocks and of risk appetite shocks on the dynamics of consumption, trade flows and the real exchange rate, in a two-country world with recursive preferences and complete financial markets. When the risk aversion coefficient exceeds the inverse of the intertemporal substitution elasticity, then an exogenous rise in a country’s output volatility triggers a wealth transfer to that country, in equilibrium; this raises its consumption, lowers its trade balance and appreciates its real exchange rate. The effects of risk appetite shocks resemble those of volatility shocks. In a recursive preferences-complete markets framework, volatility and risk appetite shocks account for a noticeable share of the fluctuations of net exports, net foreign assets and the real exchange rate. These shocks help to explain the high empirical volatility of the real exchange rate and the disconnect between relative consumption growth and the real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Kollmann, 2015. "Risk Sharing in a World Economy with Uncertainty Shocks," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-43, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/220899
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kollmann, Robert, 2016. "International business cycles and risk sharing with uncertainty shocks and recursive preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 115-124.
    2. Dmitriev, Alexandre, 2017. "Composite habits and international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-34.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    external balance; exchange rate; volatility; risk appetite; consumption-real exchange rate anmaly;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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