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International Business Cycles and Risk Sharing with Uncertainty Shocks and Recursive Preferences

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  • Robert Kollmann

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of output volatility shocks on the dynamics of consumption, trade flows and the real exchange rate, in a two-country, two-good world with consumption home bias, recursive preferences, and complete financial markets. When the risk aversion coefficient exceeds the inverse of the intertemporal substitution elasticity, then an exogenous rise in a country’s output volatility triggers a wealth transfer to that country, to compensate for the greater riskiness of the country’s output stream. This risk sharing transfer raises the country’s consumption, lowers its trade balance and appreciates its real exchange rate. In the recursive preferences framework here, volatility shocks account for a non-negligible share of the fluctuations of net exports, net foreign assets and the real exchange rate. These shocks help to explain the high empirical volatility of the real exchange rate and the disconnect between relative consumption and the real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Kollmann, 2016. "International Business Cycles and Risk Sharing with Uncertainty Shocks and Recursive Preferences," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-13, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/228794
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Kollmann, 2017. "Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization: Recursive Preferences and the Terms of Trade Channel," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2017-08, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Samil Oh & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2017. "Firm entry, Search and Matching in a Small Open Economy Faced with Uncertainty Shocks: The case of Korea," THEMA Working Papers 2017-27, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    3. repec:eee:inecon:v:111:y:2018:i:c:p:143-158 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Robert Kollmann, 2017. "Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization," 2017 Meeting Papers 1489, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Rouillard, Jean-François, 2018. "International risk sharing and financial shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 26-44.
    6. Dmitriev, Alexandre, 2017. "Composite habits and international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-34.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    international business cycles; international risk sharing; external balance; exchange rate; volatility; consumption-real exchange rate anomaly;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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