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Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions and Indeterminacy in Postwar US Data

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  • Saroj Bhattarai
  • Jae Won Lee
  • Woong Yong Park

Abstract

Using a micro-founded model and a likelihood-based inference method, we show that while a passive monetary and passive fiscal policy regime prevailed in the U.S. before Paul Volcker's chairmanship at the Federal Reserve, an active monetary and passive fiscal policy regime prevailed after his appointment. Since both monetary and fiscal policies were passive pre-Volcker, equilibrium indeterminacy was a feature of the economy. Finally, pre-Volcker, the effects of unanticipated policy shifts were substantially different from those predicted by conventional monetary models: unanticipated increases in interest rates increased inflation and output, while unanticipated increases in lump-sum taxes decreased inflation and output.

Suggested Citation

  • Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Woong Yong Park, 2012. "Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions and Indeterminacy in Postwar US Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 173-178, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:102:y:2012:i:3:p:173-78
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Woong Yong Park, 2016. "Policy Regimes, Policy Shifts, and U.S. Business Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 968-983, December.
    2. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 381-399.
    3. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2011. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2150-2166.
    4. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Woong Yong Park, 2016. "Policy Regimes, Policy Shifts, and U.S. Business Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 968-983, December.
    2. Qazi Haque, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Target Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," School of Economics Working Papers 2017-13, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    3. Bhattarai, Saroj & Lee, Jae Won & Park, Woong Yong, 2014. "Price indexation, habit formation, and the Generalized Taylor Principle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 218-225.
    4. Hirose, Yasuo & Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited," Research Working Paper RWP 17-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    5. Hirose, Yasuo & Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2015. "Monetary policy, trend inflation, and the Great Moderation: an alternative interpretation: comment based on system estimation," Research Working Paper RWP 15-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    6. Alban Moura, 2016. "The Effects of Government Spending Endogeneity on Estimated Multipliers in the U.S," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 121-122, pages 359-384.
    7. Guido Ascari & Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2016. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions: Leeper (1991) Redux," Economics Series Working Papers 788, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Yasuo Hirose, 2014. "An Estimated DSGE Model with a Deflation Steady State," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 025, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    9. Matthes, Christian & Hollmayr, Josef, 2015. "Tales of Transition Paths: Policy Uncertainty and Random Walks," Working Paper 15-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    10. Bhattarai, Saroj & Lee, Jae Won & Park, Woong Yong, 2014. "Inflation dynamics: The role of public debt and policy regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 93-108.
    11. Denny Lie, 2009. "State-dependent pricing and optimal monetary policy," Working Papers 09-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    12. Ascari, Guido & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2017. "Controlling inflation with switching monetary and fiscal policies: expectations, fiscal guidance and timid regime changes," Research Discussion Papers 9/2017, Bank of Finland.
    13. Jakob de Haan & Sylvester Eijffinger, 2016. "The politics of central bank independence," DNB Working Papers 539, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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