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Regime Shifts in U.S. Trend Inflation: Pre-Volcker to Post-Great Moderation

Author

Listed:
  • Ruopu Hu

    (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)

  • Junior Maith

    (Norges Bank)

  • Shin-Ichi Nishiyama

    (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)

Abstract

We revisit U.S. trend inflation dynamics since the 1960s by estimating a nonlinear, nonstationary Markov-switching New Keynesian model in which trend inflation evolves as a latent Markov process. Our estimation (i) confirms the Volcker disinflation as a regime shift from high to mid-level trend inflation between 1980 and 1987; (ii) shows that trend inflation remained stable around 2.8% during the Great Moderation and beyond, despite major disruptions such as the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic; and (iii) identifies a persistent hawkish monetary policy regime after 1982, with temporary weakening during periods of policy rate reductions at the zero lower bound—while inflation expectations remained well anchored.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruopu Hu & Junior Maith & Shin-Ichi Nishiyama, 2026. "Regime Shifts in U.S. Trend Inflation: Pre-Volcker to Post-Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 2604, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:koe:wpaper:2604
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling

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