Fiscal Policy in a Permanent Liquidity Trap: Evidence from Japan

We consider a medium-scale macroeconomic model where the zero lower bound on interest rates remains binding permanently. We estimate the model for the Japanese economy, encompassing both active and passive fiscal policy scenarios. Our findings reveal a predominantly passive fiscal policy stance during the period spanning from 1995 to 2023. We compute fiscal multipliers for various policy instruments, showing that under the backdrop of passive fiscal policy: i) multipliers are lower than in an active fiscal policy regime; ii) government spending multipliers remain below one; iii) tax reductions can be associated with a decrease in output and in ation. A counterfactual analysis suggests that a more active fiscal policy would have resulted in a higher price level without increasing output volatility.