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The Effects of Government Spending Endogeneity on Estimated Multipliers in the U.S

Listed author(s):
  • Alban Moura

This paper uses an estimated sticky-price model to identify endogenous movements in government consumption in the U.S. economy. Two feedback effects are considered, one originating from the stock of public debt, and one from contemporaneous output. The data provides significant statistical evidence in favor of such mechanisms, even though a subsample analysis reveals that their strength may have decreased over time. Monte Carlo simulations assessing a DSGE model with exogenous spending and various identified VARs suggest that failing to account for these feedbacks may induce a severe upward bias in estimated multipliers.

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File URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.15609/annaeconstat2009.121-122.359
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Article provided by GENES in its journal Annals Of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): (2016)
Issue (Month): 121-122 ()
Pages: 359-384

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Handle: RePEc:adr:anecst:y:2016:i:121-122:p:359-384
DOI: 10.15609/annaeconstat2009.121-122.359
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  1. Ryan Chahrour & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2012. "A Model-Based Evaluation of the Debate on the Size of the Tax Multiplier," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 28-45, May.
  2. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111429 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 894-920, October.
  4. repec:nbr:nberch:13343 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
  6. Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2011. "A Pitfall with DSGE–Based, Estimated, Government Spending Multipliers," 2011 Meeting Papers 136, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Woong Yong Park, 2012. "Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions and Indeterminacy in Postwar US Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 173-178, May.
  8. Jones, John Bailey, 2002. "Has fiscal policy helped stabilize the postwar U.S. economy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 709-746, May.
  9. Jeffrey Clemens & Stephen Miran, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers on Subnational Government Spending," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 46-68, May.
  10. repec:nbr:nberch:13344 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Patrick F?ve & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2013. "A Pitfall with Estimated DSGE-Based Government Spending Multipliers," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 141-178, October.
  12. Gunter Coenen & Roland Straub & Mathias Trabandt, 2012. "Fiscal Policy and the Great Recession in the Euro Area," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 71-76, May.
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