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Uncertainty on monetary policy and the expectations model of the term structure of interest rates

  • Favero, Carlo A.
  • Mosca, Federico

In this Paper we estimate jointly a forward-looking reaction function for the three-month rate along with a term structure relationship linking the six-month interest rates to current and expected future three-month rates. In our empirical model the response of the six-month interest rates to current and future three-month interest rates is allowed to depend on uncertainty on monetary policy. The expectation theory cannot be rejected in periods of low uncertainty on monetary policy.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V84-42VV88K-D/2/6a662fd5c9a9abb823b44a39a9f2edfd
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 71 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 369-375

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:71:y:2001:i:3:p:369-375
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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  1. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
  3. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  4. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
  5. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring monetary policy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Giuseppe Bertola & Silverio Foresi, 1993. "A Model of Target Changes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 4347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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