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Term structure and interest rate stabilization policies in the Greenspan era

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  • Anna Florio

    (Politecnico di Milano, Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering)

Abstract

Previous studies attribute the failure of the expectations theory, using the 3–6-month Treasury bill spread, to the Federal Reserve’s commitment to stabilizing interest rates. We find that with the advent of Greenspan, this spread predicts future changes in the short rate in the USA. This success can be explained by interest rate smoothing and greater transparency by the Fed. By enhancing the management of market expectations and reducing uncertainty, the central bank improves interest rate predictability and gains credibility from the market, as lower term premia suggest.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Florio, 2020. "Term structure and interest rate stabilization policies in the Greenspan era," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 345-355, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:59:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-019-01672-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-019-01672-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Florio, 2016. "The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 320-346, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Term structure; Federal Reserve; Expectation theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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