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Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Market Interest Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Ryo Kato

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Yoshifumi Hisata

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy uncertainty and the term structure of interest rates. Extending the Ellingsen and Soderstrom (2001) model, we demonstrate that long-term interest rates are positively related to monetary policy uncertainty, with the magnitude increasing with maturity. Further, we present empirical evidence to show that the theoretical prediction is generally consistent with US data.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryo Kato & Yoshifumi Hisata, 2005. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Market Interest Rates," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 05-E-7, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:05-e-7
    as

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    File URL: http://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/wps_rev/wps_2005/data/wp05e07.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kato, Ryo & Nishiyama, Shin-Ichi, 2005. "Optimal monetary policy when interest rates are bounded at zero," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 97-133, January.
    2. Favero, Carlo A. & Mosca, Federico, 2001. "Uncertainty on monetary policy and the expectations model of the term structure of interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 369-375, June.
    3. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    4. Elder, John, 2001. "Can the Volatility of the Federal Funds Rate Explain the Time-Varying Risk Premium in Treasury Bill Returns?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 73-97, January.
    5. Tore Ellingsen & Ulf Soderstrom, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Market Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1594-1607, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; term structure of interest rates; GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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