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Testing the Opportunistic Approach to Monetary Policy

Author

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  • Christopher Martin

    (Brunel University)

  • Costas Milas

    () (Keele University, Centre for Economic Research and School of Economic and Management Studies)

Abstract

The Opportunistic Approach to Monetary Policy is an influential but untested model of optimal monetary policy. We provide the first tests of the model, using US data from 1983Q1-2004Q1. Our results support the Opportunistic Approach. We find that policymakers respond to the gap between inflation and an intermediate target that reflects the recent history of inflation. We find that there is no response of interest rates to inflation when inflation is within 1intermediate target.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2007. "Testing the Opportunistic Approach to Monetary Policy," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2007/02, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
  • Handle: RePEc:kee:kerpuk:2007/02 Note: We are also grateful to Kalvinder Shields for making the real-time output data used in the Garratt, Lee, Mise and Shields (2005) working paper available to us.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Minford, Patrick & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2006. "Opportunistic monetary policy: An alternative rationalization," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, pages 366-372.
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    7. Aksoy, Yunus & Orphanides, Athanasios & Small, David & Wieland, Volker & Wilcox, David, 2006. "A quantitative exploration of the opportunistic approach to disinflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1877-1893, November.
    8. Hamilton, James D, 2001. "A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear Inference," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 537-573, May.
    9. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Emi Mise & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Real-Time Representations of the Output Gap," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, pages 792-804.
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    14. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-931, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ortiz, Marco, 2015. "Choques de colas anchas y política monetaria," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 29, pages 17-31.
    2. Kasai, Ndahiriwe & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2011. "Evaluating the forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear monetary policy rules for South Africa," MPRA Paper 40699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. repec:lan:wpaper:2364 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ruthira Naraidoo & Leroi Raputsoane, 2010. "Zone‐Targeting Monetary Policy Preferences And Financial Market Conditions: A Flexible Non‐Linear Policy Reaction Function Of The Sarb Monetary Policy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(4), pages 400-417, December.
    5. Naveen Srinivasan & M. Ramachandran & Sudhanshu Kumar, 2010. "Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Environment: Is There Evidence for Opportunistic Behaviour?," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 8(2), pages 4-19.
    6. repec:lan:wpaper:2587 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Naraidoo, Ruthira & Paya, Ivan, 2012. "Forecasting monetary policy rules in South Africa," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 446-455.
    8. Leigh, Daniel, 2008. "Estimating the Federal Reserve's implicit inflation target: A state space approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 2013-2030, June.
    9. Ahmad, Saad, 2016. "A multiple threshold analysis of the Fed's balancing act during the Great Moderation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 343-358.
    10. repec:lan:wpaper:2444 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2015. "Asymmetric Behaviour of Inflation around the Target in Inflation-Targeting Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 62(5), pages 486-504, November.
    12. Huang, Yu-Fan, 2015. "Time variation in U.S. monetary policy and credit spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 205-215.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; zone of discretion; intermediate inflation target.;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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