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Fat-Tailed Shocks and the Central Bank Reaction

  • Ortiz, Marco

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú
    London School of Economics)

In this paper we extend the model of Kato and Nishiyama (2005) by introducing fat-tailed shocks in a simple new Keynesian framework where the central bank explicitly considers the zero lower-bound constraint on interest rates. We find that shocks with `excess kurtosis' make monetary policy relatively more aggressive far away from the zero lower bound region though, this difference reverts as the economy gets closer to the constrained region. From a quantitative point of view, our findings suggest that variance-preserving shifts in kurtosis, in the shape of Laplace distributed shocks, do not produce significant effects on the optimal reaction of the central bank.

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Paper provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its series Working Papers with number 2014-002.

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Date of creation: Feb 2014
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Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2014-002
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  1. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2007. "Discretionary monetary policy and the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 728-752, April.
  2. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker W. Wieland, 1999. "Efficient monetary policy design near price stability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-67, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Guido Ascari & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2012. "Fat-Tail Distributions and Business-Cycle Models," Quaderni di Dipartimento 157, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
  4. Ball, Laurence, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April.
  5. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2006. "Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? Some evidence from OECD countries," Sciences Po publications 36, Sciences Po.
  6. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2012. "Nonlinear adventures at the zero lower bound," Working Papers 12-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  7. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711.
  8. R. Kato & S. Nishiyama, 2002. "Optimal Monetary Policy When Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 8, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. Mauricio Calani & Kevin Cowan & Pablo García S., 2011. "Inflation Targeting in Financially Stable Economies: Has it Been Flexible Enough?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.), Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 1, pages 283-368 Central Bank of Chile.
  10. Benjamin Hunt & Douglas Laxton, 2004. "The Zero Interest Rate Floor (ZIF) and its Implications for Monetary Policy in Japan," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 187(1), pages 76-92, January.
  11. Lars E O Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Bank of England working papers 56, Bank of England.
  12. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Expanded Version," NBER Technical Working Papers 0233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Jeff Fuhrer & Brian Madigan, 1994. "Monetary policy when interest rates are bounded at zero," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 94-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  14. Randall S. Kroszner, 2007. "The Conquest of Worldwide Inflation: Currency Competition and Its Implications for Interest Rates and the Yield Curve," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 27(2), pages 135-147, Spring/Su.
  15. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wilcox, David W, 2002. "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 47-71, Spring.
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