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Fat-Tailed Shocks and the Central Bank Reaction

  • Ortiz, Marco

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú
    London School of Economics)

In this paper we extend the model of Kato and Nishiyama (2005) by introducing fat-tailed shocks in a simple new Keynesian framework where the central bank explicitly considers the zero lower-bound constraint on interest rates. We find that shocks with `excess kurtosis' make monetary policy relatively more aggressive far away from the zero lower bound region though, this difference reverts as the economy gets closer to the constrained region. From a quantitative point of view, our findings suggest that variance-preserving shifts in kurtosis, in the shape of Laplace distributed shocks, do not produce significant effects on the optimal reaction of the central bank.

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Paper provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its series Working Papers with number 2014-002.

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Date of creation: Feb 2014
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Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2014-002
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  1. R. Kato & S. Nishiyama, 2002. "Optimal Monetary Policy When Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 8, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Jeffrey Fuhrer & Brian Madigan, 1994. "Monetary policy when interest rates are bounded at zero," Working Papers 94-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  3. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Gordon, Grey & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2012. "Nonlinear Adventures at the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 8972, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Guido Ascari & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2012. "Fat-Tail Distributions and Business-Cycle Models," Working Papers 02/2012, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
  5. Douglas Laxton & Ben Hunt, 2001. "The Zero Interest Rate Floor (ZIF) and its Implications for Monetary Policy in Japan," IMF Working Papers 01/186, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
  7. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? some evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 639-669.
  8. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wilcox, David W, 2002. "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 47-71, Spring.
  9. Laurence Ball, 1997. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Klaus Adam & Roberto M. Billi, 2005. "Discretionary monetary policy and the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Research Working Paper RWP 05-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  11. Mauricio Calani C. & Kevin Cowan L. & Pablo García S., 2010. "Inflation Targeting in Financially Stable Economies: Has it been Flexible Enough?," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(2), pages 11-50, August.
  12. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, June.
  13. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Expanded Version," NBER Technical Working Papers 0233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Randall S. Kroszner, 2007. "The Conquest of Worldwide Inflation: Currency Competition and Its Implications for Interest Rates and the Yield Curve," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 27(2), pages 135-147, Spring/Su.
  15. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 1999. "Efficient monetary policy design near price stability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-67, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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