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Fat-Tailed Shocks and the Central Bank Reaction

  • Ortiz, Marco

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú
    London School of Economics)

In this paper we extend the model of Kato and Nishiyama (2005) by introducing fat-tailed shocks in a simple new Keynesian framework where the central bank explicitly considers the zero lower-bound constraint on interest rates. We find that shocks with `excess kurtosis' make monetary policy relatively more aggressive far away from the zero lower bound region though, this difference reverts as the economy gets closer to the constrained region. From a quantitative point of view, our findings suggest that variance-preserving shifts in kurtosis, in the shape of Laplace distributed shocks, do not produce significant effects on the optimal reaction of the central bank.

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Paper provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its series Working Papers with number 2014-002.

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Date of creation: Feb 2014
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Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2014-002
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  1. Laurence Ball, 1997. "Efficient rules for monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/3, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  2. Guido Ascari & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2012. "Fat-tail Distributions and Business-Cycle Models," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2012-01, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  3. Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Klaus Adam & Roberto M. Billi, 2005. "Discretionary monetary policy and the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Research Working Paper RWP 05-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  5. R. Kato & S. Nishiyama, 2002. "Optimal Monetary Policy When Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 8, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. Benjamin Hunt & Douglas Laxton, 2004. "The Zero Interest Rate Floor (ZIF) and its Implications for Monetary Policy in Japan," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 187(1), pages 76-92, January.
  7. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wilcox, David W, 2002. "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 47-71, Spring.
  8. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2006. "Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? Some evidence from OECD countries," Sciences Po publications 36, Sciences Po.
  9. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, June.
  10. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Expanded Version," NBER Technical Working Papers 0233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Mauricio Calani C. & Kevin Cowan L. & Pablo García S., 2010. "Inflation Targeting in Financially Stable Economies: Has it been Flexible Enough?," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(2), pages 11-50, August.
  12. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Gordon, Grey & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2012. "Nonlinear Adventures at the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 8972, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Brian F. Madigan, 1997. "Monetary Policy When Interest Rates Are Bounded At Zero," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 573-585, November.
  14. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Efficient Monetary Policy Design near Price Stability," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 327-365, December.
  15. Randall S. Kroszner, 2007. "The Conquest of Worldwide Inflation: Currency Competition and Its Implications for Interest Rates and the Yield Curve," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 27(2), pages 135-147, Spring/Su.
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