IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijc/ijcjou/y2010q3a4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Sub-Prime Crisis and UK Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Martin

    (Department of Economics, University of Bath)

  • Costas Milas

    (Economics Group, Keele Management School, Keele University and Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Rimini, Italy)

Abstract

The “sub-prime” crisis, which led to major turbulence in global financial markets beginning in mid-2007, has posed major challenges for monetary policymakers. We analyze the impact on monetary policy of the widening differential between policy rates and the three-month LIBOR rate, the benchmark for private-sector interest rates. We show that the optimal monetary policy rule should include the determinants of this differential, adding an extra layer of complexity to the problems facing policymakers. Our estimates reveal significant effects of risk and liquidity measures, suggesting that the widening differential between base rates and LIBOR was largely driven by a sharp increase in unsecured lending risk. We calculate that the crisis increased LIBOR by up to 60 basis points; in response, base rates fell further and more quickly than would otherwise have happened as policymakers sought to offset some of the contractionary effects of the sub-prime crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2010. "The Sub-Prime Crisis and UK Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(3), pages 119-144, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2010:q:3:a:4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb10q3a4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb10q3a4.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. François-Louis Michaud & Christian Upper, 2008. "What drives interbank rates? Evidence from the Libor panel," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    2. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    3. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    4. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    5. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dr. Petra Gerlach & Dr. Barbara Rudolf, 2010. "Macroeconomic and interest rate volatility under alternative monetary operating procedures," Working Papers 2010-12, Swiss National Bank.
    2. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2010. "(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty? – The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis," Ruhr Economic Papers 166, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2013. "Modifying Taylor reaction functions in the presence of the zero‐lower‐bound — Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 515-527.
    4. repec:eid:wpaper:05/10 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2010. "(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty? – The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis," Ruhr Economic Papers 0166, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Yüksel, Ebru & Metin-Ozcan, Kivilcim & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2013. "A survey on time-varying parameter Taylor rule: A model modified with interest rate pass-through," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 122-134.
    7. E Philip Davis, 2008. "Liquidity, Financial Crises and the Lender of Last Resort – How Much of a Departure is the Sub-prime Crisis?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Paul Bloxham & Christopher Kent (ed.),Lessons from the Financial Turmoil of 2007 and 2008, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Siregar, Reza & Wiranto, Willeam, 2009. "In the Midst of Global Financial Slowdown: the Indonesian Experience," MPRA Paper 19657, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Heung Soon Jung & Dong Jin Lee & Tae Hyo Gwon & Se Jin Yun, 2015. "Reference Rates and Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Korea," Working Papers 2015-27, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    10. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2010. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy," Working Paper series 12_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    11. Milas, Costas & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2012. "Financial conditions and nonlinearities in the European Central Bank (ECB) reaction function: In-sample and out-of-sample assessment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 173-189, January.
    12. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2012. "Modifying Taylor Reaction Functions in Presence of the Zero-Lower-Bound – Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Ruhr Economic Papers 0343, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    13. repec:zbw:rwirep:0343 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:zbw:rwirep:0166 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Thanassis Kazanas & Elias Tzavalis, 2011. "Unveiling the monetary policy rule in euro area," Working Papers 130, Bank of Greece.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yoosoon Chang & Yongok Choi & Chang Sik Kim & J. Isaac Miller & Joon Y. Park, 2024. "Common Trends and Country Specific Heterogeneities in Long-Run World Energy Consumption," Working Papers No 01/2024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    2. Nikolaou, Kleopatra & Drehmann, Mathias, 2009. "Funding liquidity risk: definition and measurement," Working Paper Series 1024, European Central Bank.
    3. Hitesh Doshi & Hyung Joo Kim & Sang Byung Seo, 2023. "Options on Interbank Rates and Implied Disaster Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-054, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Lloyd, Simon P., 2020. "Estimating nominal interest rate expectations: Overnight indexed swaps and the term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (ed.), 2007. "Das Erreichte nicht verspielen. Jahresgutachten 2007/08 [The gains must not be squandered. Annual Report 2007/08]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 200708.
    6. Dubecq, Simon & Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2016. "Credit and liquidity in interbank rates: A quadratic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 29-46.
    7. Carpenter, Seth B. & Demiralp, Selva & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2016. "Volatility in the federal funds market and money market spreads during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 225-233.
    8. Zsolt Darvas & Gábor Vadas, 2003. "Univariate Potential Output Estimations for Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2003/8, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    9. González Andrés & Teräsvirta Timo, 2008. "Modelling Autoregressive Processes with a Shifting Mean," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-28, March.
    10. Taylor, Nick, 2014. "The rise and fall of technical trading rule success," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 286-302.
    11. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2008. "Canonical Term‐Structure Models with Observable Factors and the Dynamics of Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1471-1488, October.
    12. Russell Davidson & Niels S. Grønborg, 2018. "Time-varying parameters: New test tailored to applications in finance and macroeconomics," CREATES Research Papers 2018-22, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    13. Knezevic, David & Krüger, Niclas & Nordström, Martin, 2019. "A Guarantee – Does the Obligee Agree? A Risk Premium Decomposition of Sub-Sovereign Bond Spreads," Working Papers 2019:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
    14. Wolfgang Aussenegg & Lukas Goetz & Ranko Jelic, 2015. "Common Factors in the Performance of European Corporate Bonds – Evidence before and after the Financial Crisis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(2), pages 265-308, March.
    15. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Barbara Rudolf, 2010. "Macroeconomic and interest rate volatility under alternative monetary operating procedures," BIS Working Papers 319, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Alexander M. Chinco & Mao Ye, 2017. "Investment-Horizon Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 23650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Gerhart, Christoph & Lütkebohmert, Eva, 2020. "Empirical analysis and forecasting of multiple yield curves," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 59-78.
    18. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
    19. Matteo Modena, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Curvature Factor of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008_35, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    20. Renne, J-P., 2009. "Frequency-domain analysis of debt service in a macro-finance model for the euro area," Working papers 261, Banque de France.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2010:q:3:a:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank for International Settlements (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ijcb.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.