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Estimating nominal interest rate expectations: Overnight indexed swaps and the term structure

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  • Lloyd, Simon P.

Abstract

No-arbitrage dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) have regularly been used to estimate interest rate expectations and term premia, but are beset by empirical challenges. I propose augmenting DTSMs with overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates to better estimate the decomposition along the term structure at daily frequencies. A Gaussian affine DTSM, augmented with 3 to 24-month OIS rates, generates estimates of US expectations that closely correspond to survey-implied measures out to a 10-year horizon and are more stable across sub-samples, compared to existing models. In addition, I provide narrative evidence, in the form of an event study around US unconventional monetary policy announcements, to further exemplify the benefits from OIS augmentation.

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  • Lloyd, Simon P., 2020. "Estimating nominal interest rate expectations: Overnight indexed swaps and the term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:119:y:2020:i:c:s0378426620301771
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105915
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    Cited by:

    1. Bailey, Andrew & Bridges, Jonathan & Harrison, Richard & Jones, Josh & Mankodi, Aakash, 2020. "The central bank balance sheet as a policy tool: past, present and future," Bank of England working papers 899, Bank of England.
    2. Lloyd, Simon & Ostry, Daniel, 2024. "The asymmetric effects of quantitative tightening and easing on financial markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    3. Darmouni, Olivier & Geisecke, Oliver & Rodnyanky, Alexander, 2019. "The Bond Lending Channel of Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 95141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Giancarlo Corsetti & Joao B Duarte & Samuel Mann, 2022. "One Money, Many Markets [Fixed Rate Versus Adjustable Rate Mortgages: Evidence from Euro Area Banks]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 513-548.
    5. Corsetti, G. & Duarte, J. B. & Mann, S., 2018. "One Money, Many Markets - A Factor Model Approach to Monetary Policy in the Euro Area with High-Frequency Identification," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1816, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Giancarlo Corsetti & Joao B. Duarte & Samuel Mann, 2020. "One Money, Many Markets: Monetary Transmission and Housing Financing in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2020/108, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Lloyd, S. P., 2017. "Overnight Indexed Swap Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1733, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. He, Zhen & O’Connor, Fergal & Thijssen, Jacco, 2022. "Identifying proxies for risk-free assets: Evidence from the zero-beta capital asset pricing model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    9. Realdon, Marco, 2024. "The efficiency of the Estr overnight index swap market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic term structure model; Monetary policy expectations; Overnight indexed swaps; Term premia; Term structure of interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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