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Interest Rates Close to Zero, Post-crisis Restructuring and Natural Interest Rate

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  • Piotr Ciżkowicz
  • Andrzej Rzońca

Abstract

Central banks do not seem to account for the impact of interest rates close to zero on the natural interest rate after the bursting of the asset bubble that triggered the fi nancial crisis in 2008. We claim that this omission may have harmful consequences. Should interest rates close to zero persistently decrease natural interest rates that would mean a fall in TFP growth and more limited central bank's capacity to infl uence aggregated demand and price dynamics. We explain that interest rates close to zero may persistently reduce the natural interest rate because in the economy, requiring post-crisis restructuring, they impede the process of restructuring and facilitate forbearance lending, which crowds viable economic agents out of credit through a number of channels. To reduce these risks, the central bank could voluntarily set a lower bound for interest rates cuts at, for instance, 2%. The boundary appropriate for a given economy should be a function of its growth rate and interest rates in the pre-crisis period. We argue that irrespectively of the central bank’s credibility such a change in the monetary policy conducting in economies requiring post-crisis restructuring would bring better outcomes than keeping interest rates close to zero.

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  • Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2014. "Interest Rates Close to Zero, Post-crisis Restructuring and Natural Interest Rate," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(3), pages 315-329.
  • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2014:y:2014:i:3:id:486:p:315-329
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Willem van den End & Marco Hoeberichts, 2014. "Low real rates as driver of secular stagnation: empirical assessment," DNB Working Papers 444, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2015. "Inflation Targeting and its Discontents: The Case of Poland," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 65(supplemen), pages 107-122, December.
    3. Leszek Balcerowicz, 2014. "Euro Imbalances and Adjustment: A Comparative Analysis," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 34(3), pages 453-482, Fall.
    4. Piotr Cizkowicz & Andrzej Rzonca & Andrzej Toroj, 2015. "In search for appropriate lower bound.Zero lower bound vs. positive lower bound under discretion and commitment," NBP Working Papers 215, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    restructuring; credit; interest rates close to zero; new Keynesian analytical framework;

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

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