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Liquidity Traps: An Interest-Rate-Based Exit Strategy


  • Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
  • Martín Uribe


This paper analyzes a potential strategy for escaping liquidity traps. The strategy is based on an augmented Taylor-type interest-rate feedback rule and differs from usual specifications in that when inflation falls below a threshold, the central bank temporarily deviates from the traditional Taylor rule by following a deterministic path for the nominal interest rate. This path reaches the intended target for this policy instrument in finite time. The policy we study is designed to raise inflationary expectations over time while at the same time maintaining all of the desirable local properties of the Taylor principle in a neighborhood of the intended inflation target. Importantly, the effectiveness of the potential exit strategy studied in this paper does not rely on the existence of an accompanying fiscalist (or non-Ricardian) fiscal stance.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2010. "Liquidity Traps: An Interest-Rate-Based Exit Strategy," NBER Working Papers 16514, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16514
    Note: EFG ME

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Uribe, Martin, 1999. "Comparing the welfare costs and initial dynamics of alternative inflation stabilization policies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 295-318, August.
    2. Bullard, James B., 2013. "Seven Faces of "The Peril"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 613-628.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:aea:aecrev:v:107:y:2017:i:7:p:1971-2006 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2014. "Interest Rates Close to Zero, Post-crisis Restructuring and Natural Interest Rate," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(3), pages 315-329.
    3. Martin, Christopher & Milas, Costas, 2013. "Financial crises and monetary policy: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 654-661.
    4. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2015. "Inflation Targeting and its Discontents: The Case of Poland," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 65(supplemen), pages 107-122, December.
    5. Piotr Cizkowicz & Andrzej Rzonca & Andrzej Toroj, 2015. "In search for appropriate lower bound.Zero lower bound vs. positive lower bound under discretion and commitment," NBP Working Papers 215, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    6. Mariana Garcıa-Schmidt & Michael Woodford, "undated". "Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect- Foresight Analysis," Working Papers Series 18, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    7. Christopher Gust & Edward Herbst & David López-Salido & Matthew E. Smith, 2017. "The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1971-2006, July.
    8. Christiane Baumeister & Luca Benati, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 165-212, June.
    9. Richard G. Anderson, 2013. "Japan as a role model?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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