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Deflation: Prevention and Cure

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  • Buiter, Willem

Abstract

After an absence of almost half a century, the spectre of deflation is once again haunting the corridors of central banks and finance ministries in the industrial world. While preventing or combating deflation poses some unique difficulties not present in preventing or combating inflation, deflation can be prevented and, if it has taken hold, can be overcome, using conventional instruments of monetary and fiscal policy. These include open market purchases of government securities and monetary financing of government deficits caused by expansionary fiscal measures. Base money-financed tax cuts or transfer payments ? the mundane version of Friedman?s helicopter drop of money ? will always boost aggregate demand. Unconventional monetary and fiscal measures are also available. These include open market purchases of private and foreign securities, negative nominal interest rates (through a carry tax on currency) and intertemporal terms of trade shifting temporary tax measures aimed at shifting private consumption from the future to the present, such as a cut in VAT today coupled to the credible commitment of a VAT increase in the future. Such measures may be helpful, but are not necessary to get the job done. Deflation results from a combination of bad luck and poor economic management, including the failure to coordinate monetary and fiscal policy. Sustained unwanted deflation is evidence of policy failure. Both the knowledge and the tools exist to prevent unwanted deflation.

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  • Buiter, Willem, 2003. "Deflation: Prevention and Cure," CEPR Discussion Papers 3869, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3869
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    2. Jorg Bibow, 2004. "Fiscal Consolidation: Contrasting Strategies & Lessons From International Experiences," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_400, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Eckhard Hein & Thorsten Schulten & Achim Truger, 2004. "Wage trends and deflation risks in Germany and Europe," Macroeconomics 0412008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Claudio Morana, 2005. "The Japanese deflation: has it had real effects? Could it have been avoided?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 1337-1352.
    5. Zammit, Robert, 2006. "Japanese quantitative easing: The effects and constraints of anti-deflationary monetary expansions," MPRA Paper 3361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Alfonso Palacio-Vera, 2006. "On Lower-bound Traps: A Framework for the Analysis of Monetary Policy in the ÒAgeÓ of Central Banks," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_478, Levy Economics Institute.
    7. Dieppe, Alistair & McAdam, Peter, 2006. "Monetary policy under a liquidity trap: Simulation evidence for the euro area," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 338-363, September.
    8. Romain Veyrune, 2005. "Le prix de la fixité : Application à l'Union monétaire des Caraïbes orientales et à la Zone franc," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 130(2), pages 63-76.
    9. Junning Cai, 2004. "Liquidity Trap Prevention and Escape: A Simple Proposition," Macroeconomics 0402033, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mr. Taimur Baig, 2003. "Understanding the Costs of Deflation in the Japanese Context," IMF Working Papers 2003/215, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Roy Cromb & Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, 2004. "Long-term interest rates, wealth and consumption," Bank of England working papers 243, Bank of England.
    12. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.
    13. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers and Policy Coordination," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 6, pages 175-234, Central Bank of Chile.
    14. Buiter, Willem, 2003. "Two Naked Emperors? Concerns about the Stability and Growth Pact and Second Thoughts About Central Bank Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 4001, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. John H. Cochrane, 2009. "Comment on "On the Need for a New Approach to Analyzing Monetary Policy"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 427-448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Gerlach, Stefan, 2009. "The risk of deflation," IMFS Working Paper Series 21, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    17. Willem H. Buiter, 2003. "Helicopter Money: Irredeemable Fiat Money and the Liquidity Trap," NBER Working Papers 10163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. von Hagen, Jurgen & Hofmann, Boris, 2004. "Macroeconomic implications of low inflation in the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 5-23, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deflation; Zero bound; Policy effectiveness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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