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House Prices and Monetary Policy

This paper analyzes global dynamics in an overlapping generations general equilibrium model with housing-wealth effects. It shows that monetary policy cannot burst rational bubbles in the housing market. Under monetary policy rules of the Taylor-type, there exist global self-fulfilling paths of house prices along a heteroclinic orbit connecting multiple equilibria. From bifurcation analysis, the orbit features a boom (bust) in house prices when monetary policy is more (less) active. The paper also demonstrates that boom or busts cannot be ruled out by interest-rate feedback rules responding to both inflation and house prices

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Paper provided by Tor Vergata University, CEIS in its series CEIS Research Paper with number 250.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2012
Date of revision: 01 Aug 2012
Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:250
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  1. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims, 1994. "Toward a Modern Macroeconomic Model Usable for Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jiri Slacalek, 2011. "How Large Are Housing and Financial Wealth Effects? A New Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 55-79, 02.
  3. Calvo, Guillermo A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1988. "Optimal Time-Consistent Fiscal Policy with Finite Lifetimes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(2), pages 411-32, March.
  4. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
  5. Nikola Dvornak & Marion Kohler, 2007. "Housing Wealth, Stock Market Wealth and Consumption: A Panel Analysis for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(261), pages 117-130, 06.
  6. Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2002. "A unified framework for monetary theory and policy analysis," Working Paper 0211, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  7. Deaton,Angus & Muellbauer,John, 1980. "Economics and Consumer Behavior," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521296762, December.
  8. Marini, Giancarlo & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1987. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an Optimizing Model with Capital Accumulation and Finite Lives," CEPR Discussion Papers 167, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Rudiger Ahrend & Boris Cournède & Robert W. R. Price, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Market Excesses and Financial Turmoil," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 597, OECD Publishing.
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