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Consumer credit in an era of financial liberalization: an overreaction to repressed demand?

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  • Sophocles N. Brissimis
  • Eugenie N. Garganas
  • Stephen G. Hall

Abstract

In this article, we empirically analyse the factors which determined consumer credit in Greece in the period before and after the financial liberalization, while accounting for significant changes in structure due to the lifting of credit restrictions and the subsequent impressive boom of consumer loans. We use multivariate cointegration techniques to estimate a vector error correction model (VECM) and identify separate demand and supply relationships for consumer loans. We introduce demand and supply-related shifts in parameters through the inclusion of appropriate dummy variables and trends in the long-run relationships. We partly deviate from the typical Johansen procedure and estimate the model in two steps. We find that the theoretical exclusion and coefficient-size restrictions on the demand and supply cointegrating vectors are valid. Our results are consistent with the operation of a bank lending channel in Greece. We also find that the supply side was mostly responsible for the acceleration of consumer loan growth following credit liberalization.

Suggested Citation

  • Sophocles N. Brissimis & Eugenie N. Garganas & Stephen G. Hall, 2014. "Consumer credit in an era of financial liberalization: an overreaction to repressed demand?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 139-152, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:46:y:2014:i:2:p:139-152
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2013.835482
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    3. Elena Deryugina & Olga Kovalenko & Irina Pantina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2015. "Disentangling loan demand and supply shocks in Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps3, Bank of Russia.
    4. Vouldis, Angelos, 2015. "Credit market disequilibrium in Greece (2003-2011) - a Bayesian approach," Working Paper Series 1805, European Central Bank.
    5. Angelos T. Vouldis & Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2018. "Leading indicators of non-performing loans in Greece: the information content of macro-, micro- and bank-specific variables," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1187-1214, May.
    6. Sarantis Lolos & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2011. "Housing credit and female labour supply: assessing the evidence from Greece," Working Papers 141, Bank of Greece.
    7. repec:zbw:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503111111 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Shalkar Baikulakov, 2019. "An equilibrium level of credits in the economy of Kazakhstan," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 1-2.
    9. Angelika Knollmayer & Aleksandra Riedl & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2015. "The mixed success of EU-IMF adjustment programs in Europe – why Greece was different," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 52-70.
    10. Teresa Herrador-Alcaide & Montserrat Hernández-Solís, 2019. "Empirical Study Regarding Non-Financial Disclosure for Social Conscious Consumption in the Spanish E-Credit Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-26, February.
    11. Mr. Etibar Jafarov & Mr. Rodolfo Maino & Mr. Marco Pani, 2019. "Financial Repression is Knocking at the Door, Again," IMF Working Papers 2019/211, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Oyvat, Cem, 2020. "The role of global finance in the provisioning of social infrastructure and the welfare state," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 26750, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    13. Vogiazas, Sophocles & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2014. "‘Putting The Horse Before The Cart’: A Pre-Crisis Panel Data Investigation Of Greek Bank’S Credit Growth," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 10(1-2), January.
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    15. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503111111 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. V. A. Pankova, 2022. "Modeling the Dynamics of Retail Lending in Russia: a Relationship with the Dynamics of Household Savings, Incomes, and Expenses," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(6), pages 723-735, December.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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