IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbb/reswpp/200003-3.html

A model with explicit expectations for Belgium

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Jeanfils

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

Abstract

This paper presents a new quarterly macroeconometric model of the Belgian economy. It is intended to contribute to existing analytical work covering the specific transmission mechanisms of the euro area monetary policy in the Belgian economy. It also contributes to the forecast exercises and to their risk analysis. Finally it is also used to analyse the consequences of specific Belgian shocks. The model is small-scale and based on recent macroeconomic theory. The model's dynamics not only allow for the lagged adjustments from economic agents due to transaction costs to be taken into consideration, but also for agents to anticipate future developments and policy reactions. In simulations, expectation formation can be assumed either to be model consistent or to be generated by VAR-based extrapolations. On the basis of a few diagnostic simulations it is shown that in the long run the model converges to its steady state, defined by the underlying economic theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Jeanfils, 2000. "A model with explicit expectations for Belgium," Working Paper Research 04, National Bank of Belgium.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200003-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nbb.be/doc/ts/publications/wp/wp4en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 1997. "QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 123, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Rae, David, 1996. "NBNZ-DEMONZ: A dynamic equilibrium model of New Zealand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 91-165, January.
    4. Nyssens, A. & Butzen, P. & Bisciari, P., 2000. "Performances economiques des Etats-Unis dans les annees nonante," Papers 3, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
    5. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Seater, John J, 1993. "Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 142-190, March.
    7. Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2013. "Inflation Targeting in a St. Louis Model of the 21st Century," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 543-574.
    8. Dolado, Juan & Galbraith, John W & Banerjee, Anindya, 1991. "Estimating Intertemporal Quadratic Adjustment Cost Models with Integrated Series," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(4), pages 919-936, November.
    9. Stephen S. Poloz & David Rose & Robert Tetlow, 1994. "The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM): An introduction," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1994(Autumn), pages 23-38.
    10. Brayton, Flint & Levin, Andrew & Lyon, Ralph & Williams, John C., 1997. "The evolution of macro models at the Federal Reserve Board," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 43-81, December.
    11. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    12. Philippe Jeanfils, 2000. "A model with explicit expectations for Belgium," Working Paper Research 04, National Bank of Belgium.
    13. Raf Wouters & Michel Dombrecht, 2000. "Model-based inflation forecasts and monetary policy rules," Working Paper Research 01, National Bank of Belgium.
    14. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
    15. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    16. Luc Aucremanne, 2000. "The use of robust estimators as measures of core inflation," Working Paper Research 02, National Bank of Belgium.
    17. Nickell, Stephen, 1985. "Error Correction, Partial Adjustment and All That: An Expository Note," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 47(2), pages 119-129, May.
    18. Flint Brayton & Eileen Mauskopf & David L. Reifschneider & Peter A. Tinsley & John Williams, 1997. "The role of expectations in the FRB/US macroeconomic model," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 83(Apr), pages 227-245, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeanfils, Philippe & Burggraeve, Koen, 2008. ""NONAME": A new quarterly model for Belgium," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 118-127, January.
    2. Jeanfils, P., 2001. "A Guided Tour of the World of Rational Expectations Models and Optimal Policies," Papers 16, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
    3. Brunila, Anne, 1997. "Current income and private consumption : Saving decisions : Testing the finite horizon model," Research Discussion Papers 6/1997, Bank of Finland.
    4. Brunila, Anne, 1997. "Current income and private consumption: Saving decisions: Testing the finite horizon model," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/1997, Bank of Finland.
    5. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    6. Willman, Alpo, 2003. "Consumption, habit persistence, imperfect information and the lifetime budget constraint," Working Paper Series 251, European Central Bank.
    7. Brunila, Anne, 1996. "Fiscal policy and private consumption: Saving decisions: Evidence from Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 28/1996, Bank of Finland.
    8. Ivo Maes, 2002. "On the origins of the Franco-German EMU controversies," Working Paper Research 34, National Bank of Belgium.
    9. George VAN GASTEL & François COPPENS & Hilde MEERSMAN & Nathalie SELLEKAERTS & Eddy VAN DE VOORDE & Thierry VANELSLANDER & Ann VERHETSEL, 2010. "Economic Impact of Port Activity: A Disaggregate Analysis. The Case of Antwerp," Regional and Urban Modeling 284100044, EcoMod.
    10. Luc Aucremann & David Cornille, 2001. "Attractive prices and euro-rounding effects on inflation," Working Paper Document 17, National Bank of Belgium.
    11. Bruno Eugène & Philippe Jeanfils & Benoît Robert, 2003. "La consommation privée en Belgique," Working Paper Document 39, National Bank of Belgium.
    12. Taylor, John B., 1999. "Staggered price and wage setting in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 1009-1050, Elsevier.
    13. Geert Langenus, 2006. "Fiscal sustainability indicators and policy design in the face of ageing," Working Paper Research 102, National Bank of Belgium.
    14. Malick Souare, 2003. "Macroeconomic Implications of Population Aging and Public Pensions," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 100, McMaster University.
    15. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., 1997. "Towards a compact, empirically-verified rational expectations model for monetary policy analysis," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 197-230, December.
    16. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    17. Buiter, Willem H., 2010. "Housing wealth isn't wealth," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 4, pages 1-29.
    18. Brunila, Anne, 1996. "Fiscal policy and private consumption : Saving decisions : Evidence from Finland," Research Discussion Papers 28/1996, Bank of Finland.
    19. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2009. "Structural Macro-Econometric Modelling in a Policy Environment," NCER Working Paper Series 50, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    20. Yongseung Jung, 2017. "Understanding the Real Exchange Rate and Consumption: Limited Asset Market Participation," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 33, pages 127-152.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200003-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bnbgvbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.