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Towards a compact, empirically verified rational expectations model for monetary policy analysis

  • Jeffrey C. Fuhrer

This paper extends the sticky-price models of Fuhrer and Moore (1995a,b) to include explicit, optimization-based consumption and investment decisions. The goal is to use the resulting model for monetary policy analysis; consequently, strong emphasis is placed on empirical validation of the model. I use a canonical formulation of the consumer's problem from Campbell and Mankiw (1989), and a time-to-build investment model with costs of adjustment. The restrictions imposed by these models, in conjunction with those imposed on prices and output by the Fuhrer-Moore contracting specification, imply dynamic behavior that is grossly inconsistent with the data.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its series Working Papers with number 96-8.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Publication status: Published in Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 47 (December 1997): 197-230.
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:96-8
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  1. Oliner, Stephen & Rudebusch, Glenn & Sichel, Daniel, 1995. "New and Old Models of Business Investment: A Comparison of Forecasting Performance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 806-26, August.
  2. Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1996. "Inflation Targeting in a St. Louis Model of the 21st Century," NBER Working Papers 5507, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Miles S. Kimball & Michael Woodford, 1994. "The quantitative analysis of the basic neomonetarist model," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1241-1289.
  4. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Output dynamics in real business cycle models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521479394 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. repec:nbr:nberre:0126 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  9. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521474009 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  11. Brayton, Flint & Mauskopf, Eileen, 1985. "The federal reserve board MPS quarterly econometric model of the US economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 170-292, July.
  12. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
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