IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03550030.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The evolution and heterogeneity of credit procyclicality in Central and Eastern Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Carlos Cuestas
  • Yannick Lucotte

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours)

  • Nicolas Reigl

Abstract

This paper presents empirical estimates of bank credit procyclicality for a sample of 11 Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEECs) for the period 2000Q1–2016Q4. In the first step we estimate a traditional-type panel VAR model and analyse the evolution of credit procyclicality in the CEECs by comparing the impulse response functions for different business cycle periods. The results confirm the existence of credit procyclicality in CEECs and show that procyclicality is higher during boom periods. Furthermore we observe the heterogeneity of credit procyclicality in the different countries in our sample. To explain the cross-country heterogeneity in credit procyclicality we construct an interacted panel VAR model (IPVAR) and analyse whether bank level competition, proxied by the aggregate Lerner index, constitutes a driving force of credit procyclicality. Our findings indicate that bank competition affects credit procyclicality and explains the differences in credit dynamics across CEECs. Specifically we show that the reaction of credit to a GDP shock is on average higher in a less competitive banking market.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Cuestas & Yannick Lucotte & Nicolas Reigl, 2022. "The evolution and heterogeneity of credit procyclicality in Central and Eastern Europe," Post-Print hal-03550030, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03550030
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2183
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Presbitero, Andrea F. & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2011. "Competition and relationship lending: Friends or foes?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 387-413, July.
    2. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
    3. Leroy, Aurélien & Lucotte, Yannick, 2019. "Competition and credit procyclicality in European banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 237-251.
    4. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Akins, Brian & Li, Lynn & Ng, Jeffrey & Rusticus, Tjomme O., 2016. "Bank Competition and Financial Stability: Evidence from the Financial Crisis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 1-28, February.
    6. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 47-100, January.
    7. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Excessive Credit Growth and Countercyclical Capital Buffers in Basel III: An Empirical Evidence from Central and East European Countries," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 6(2), pages 91-107.
    8. Arnoud W. A. Boot & Anjan V. Thakor, 2000. "Can Relationship Banking Survive Competition?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 679-713, April.
    9. Jokipii, Terhi & Milne, Alistair, 2008. "The cyclical behaviour of European bank capital buffers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1440-1451, August.
    10. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2014. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 6, pages 165-204, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Allen N. Berger & Timothy H. Hannan, 1998. "The Efficiency Cost Of Market Power In The Banking Industry: A Test Of The "Quiet Life" And Related Hypotheses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 454-465, August.
    12. repec:cii:cepiie:2015-q1-141-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    14. Franklin Allen & Elena Carletti & Robert Marquez, 2011. "Credit Market Competition and Capital Regulation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(4), pages 983-1018.
    15. Caminal, Ramon & Matutes, Carmen, 2002. "Market power and banking failures," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(9), pages 1341-1361, November.
    16. Anginer, Deniz & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Zhu, Min, 2014. "How does competition affect bank systemic risk?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-26.
    17. repec:cii:cepiei:2015-q1-141-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. √Íscar Jord√Ä & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 3-28, December.
    19. Patrick Bolton & Xavier Freixas & Leonardo Gambacorta & Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, 2016. "Relationship and Transaction Lending in a Crisis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(10), pages 2643-2676.
    20. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    21. Pedersen, Torben Mark, 2001. "The Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Slutzky effect, and the distortionary effect of filters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1081-1101, August.
    22. Leroy, Aurélien & Lucotte, Yannick, 2019. "Competition and credit procyclicality in European banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 237-251.
    23. Towbin, Pascal & Weber, Sebastian, 2013. "Limits of floating exchange rates: The role of foreign currency debt and import structure," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 179-194.
    24. Mathias Drehmann & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2014. "The credit-to-GDP gap and countercyclical capital buffers: questions and answers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    25. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    26. John H. Boyd & Gianni De Nicoló, 2005. "The Theory of Bank Risk Taking and Competition Revisited," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1329-1343, June.
    27. Berger, Allen N, et al, 2004. "Bank Concentration and Competition: An Evolution in the Making," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 433-451, June.
    28. Aurélien Leroy & Yannick Lucotte, 2015. "Heterogeneous monetary transmission process in the Eurozone: Does banking competition matter?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 141, pages 115-134.
    29. Hume, Michael & Sentance, Andrew, 2009. "The global credit boom: Challenges for macroeconomics and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1426-1461, December.
    30. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    31. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    32. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Robert Marquez, 2006. "Lending Booms and Lending Standards," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2511-2546, October.
    33. Allen N. Berger & Leora F. Klapper & Rima Turk-Ariss, 2017. "Bank competition and financial stability," Chapters, in: Jacob A. Bikker & Laura Spierdijk (ed.), Handbook of Competition in Banking and Finance, chapter 10, pages 185-204, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    34. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2008. "Monetary policy, asset prices and macroeconomic conditions : a panel-VAR study," Working Paper Research 149, National Bank of Belgium.
    35. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    36. Albertazzi, Ugo & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2009. "Bank profitability and the business cycle," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 393-409, December.
    37. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    38. Bouvatier, Vincent & López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Does the banking sector structure matter for credit procyclicality?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1035-1044.
    39. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    40. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Daniilidis, Ioannis & Delis, Manthos D., 2014. "Bank procyclicality and output: Issues and policies," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 58-83.
    41. Yishay Yafeh & Oved Yosha, 2001. "Industrial Organization of Financial Systems and Strategic Use of Relationship Banking," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 5(1-2), pages 63-78.
    42. Bassett, William F. & Chosak, Mary Beth & Driscoll, John C. & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2014. "Changes in bank lending standards and the macroeconomy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 23-40.
    43. Mise, Emi & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Newbold, Paul, 2005. "On suboptimality of the Hodrick-Prescott filter at time series endpoints," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 53-67, March.
    44. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57, Bank for International Settlements.
    45. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Boom-Bust Cycles in Middle Income Countries: Facts and Explanation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 111-155.
    46. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Yannick Lucotte & Nicolas Reigl, 2020. "Banking sector concentration, competition and financial stability: the case of the Baltic countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 215-249, February.
    47. Uhde, André & Heimeshoff, Ulrich, 2009. "Consolidation in banking and financial stability in Europe: Empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1299-1311, July.
    48. Adam Geršl & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Credit Growth and Countercyclical Capital Buffers: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers IES 2012/3, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2012.
    49. Allen N. Berger & Asli Demirgüč-Kunt & Joseph G. Haubrich & Ross Levine, 2004. "Introduction: Bank concentration and competition: an evolution in the making," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 433-451.
    50. Filipa Sá & Pascal Towbin & Tomasz Wieladek, 2014. "Capital Inflows, Financial Structure And Housing Booms," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 522-546, April.
    51. Klaus Schaeck & Martin Cihák, 2012. "Banking Competition and Capital Ratios," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(5), pages 836-866, November.
    52. Leonardo Gambacorta, 2016. "Relationship and Transaction Lending: New Evidence and Perspectives," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 70-75, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leroy, Aurélien & Lucotte, Yannick, 2019. "Competition and credit procyclicality in European banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 237-251.
    2. Leroy, Aurélien & Lucotte, Yannick, 2019. "Competition and credit procyclicality in European banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 237-251.
    3. Olszak, Małgorzata & Kowalska, Iwona, 2022. "Does bank competition matter for the effects of macroprudential policy on the procyclicality of lending?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Florian Leon, 2015. "What do we know about the role of bank competition in Africa?," CERDI Working papers halshs-01164864, HAL.
    5. Kouretas, Georgios P. & Pawłowska, Małgorzata & Szafrański, Grzegorz, 2020. "Market structure and credit procyclicality: Lessons from loan markets in the European Union banking sectors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 27-50.
    6. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    7. Wilson, John O.S. & Casu, Barbara & Girardone, Claudia & Molyneux, Philip, 2010. "Emerging themes in banking: Recent literature and directions for future research," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 153-169.
    8. Daniela Marchettini & Mr. Rodolfo Maino, 2015. "Systemic Risk Assessment in Low Income Countries: Balancing Financial Stability and Development," IMF Working Papers 2015/190, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Olszak, Małgorzata & Kowalska, Iwona, 2023. "Do competition and market structure affect sensitivity of bank profitability to the business cycle?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    10. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    11. David Martinez-Miera & Rafael Repullo, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Macroprudential Policy, and Financial Stability," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 809-832, August.
    12. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    13. Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S., 2021. "Identifying indicators of systemic risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    14. Selim Elekdag & Yiqun Wu, 2013. "Rapid Credit Growth in Emerging Markets: Boon or Boom-Bust?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(5), pages 45-62, September.
    15. Kátay Gábor & Kerdelhué Lisa & Lequien Matthieu, 2020. "Semi-Structural VAR and Unobserved Components Models to Estimate Finance-Neutral Output Gap," Working papers 791, Banque de France.
    16. Abayomi Oredegbe, 2022. "Competition and Banking Industry Stability: How Do BRICS and G7 Compare?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 21(1), pages 7-31, March.
    17. Channarith Meng & Roberto Leon Gonzalez, 2017. "Credit Booms in Developing Countries: Are They Different from Those in Advanced and Emerging Market Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 547-579, July.
    18. Sleibi, Yacoub & Casalin, Fabrizio & Fazio, Giorgio, 2020. "Bank-specific shocks and aggregate leverage: Empirical evidence from a panel of developed countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    19. Borsi, Mihály Tamás, 2018. "Credit contractions and unemployment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 573-593.
    20. Vincent Bouvatier & Antonia Lopez-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2010. "On the Link Between Credit Procyclicality and Bank Competition," Working Papers 2010-25, CEPII research center.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03550030. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.