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An Early Warning Model for Predicting Credit Booms Using Macroeconomic Aggregates

Author

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  • Alexander Guarín
  • Andr�s Gonz�lez
  • Daphn� Skandalis
  • Daniela S�nchez

Abstract

In this paper, we propose an alternative methodology to determine the existence of credit booms, which is a complex and crucial issue for policymakers. In particular, we exploit the Mendoza and Terrones's (2008) idea that macroeconomic aggregates contain valuable information to predict lending boom episodes. Specifically, our econometric method is used to estimate and predict the probability of being in a credit boom. We run empirical exercises on quarterly data for six Latin American countries between 1996 and 2011. In order to capture simultaneously model and parameter uncertainty, we implement the Bayesian model averaging method. As we employ panel data, the estimates may be used to predict booms of countries which are not considered in the estimation. Overall, our findings show that macroeconomic variables contain relevant information to identify and to predict credit booms. In fact, with our method the probability of detecting a credit boom is 80%, while the probability of not having false alarms is greater than 92%.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Guarín & Andr�s Gonz�lez & Daphn� Skandalis & Daniela S�nchez, 2014. "An Early Warning Model for Predicting Credit Booms Using Macroeconomic Aggregates," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 32(73), pages 77-86.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:011975
    DOI: 10.1016/S0120-4483(14)70020-X
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    Cited by:

    1. Guarin, Alexander & Lozano, Ignacio, 2017. "Credit funding and banking fragility: A forecasting model for emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 168-189.
    2. Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Alexander Guarín-López, 2015. "Fragilidad bancaria en Colombia: un análisis basado en las hojas de balance," Chapters, in: Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jair N. Ojeda-Joya (ed.), Política monetaria y estabilidad financiera en economías pequeñas y abiertas, chapter 10, pages 301-338, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Alexander Guar�n-L�pez & Ignacio Lozano-Espitia, 2016. "Credit Funding and Banking Fragility: An Empirical Analysis for Emerging Economies," Borradores de Economia 14306, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Carlos Quicazán, 2012. "Profundización Financiera y su efecto en las Firmas en Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 070, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Ignacio Lozano & Alexander Guarin, 2014. "Banking fragility in Colombia: An empirical analysis based on balance sheets," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 32(75), pages 48-63, December.
    6. Juan Guillermo Bedoya Ospina, 2017. "Ciclos de crédito, liquidez global y regímenes monetarios: una aproximación para América Latina," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 78.
    7. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2019. "Determination of the Current Phase of the Credit Cycle in Emerging Markets," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(2), pages 28-42, June.
    8. María Victoria Landaberry, 2019. "Boom de crédito en Uruguay: Identificación y Anticipación," Documentos de trabajo 2019001, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    9. Franz Alonso Hamann Salcedo & Rafael Hern�ndez & Luisa Fernanda Silva Escobar & Fernando Tenjo Galarza, 2013. "Credit Pro-cyclicality and Bank Balance Sheet in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 10695, Banco de la Republica.
    10. Urbina, Jilber, 2016. "Crecimiento del crédito en Nicaragua, ¿Crecimiento natural o boom crediticio? [Credit growth in Nicaragua: Natural growth or credit boom?]," MPRA Paper 75577, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2016.
    11. Jair N. Ojeda-Joya, 2019. "Episodios de deterioro de la cuenta corriente en Colombia: factores externos, cíclicos y estructurales," Borradores de Economia 1061, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. Arteaga Cabrales, Carolina & Huertas-Campos, Carlos Alfonso & Olarte Armenta, Sergio, 2013. "Índice de desbalance macroeconómico," Chapters, in: Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Velasco, Andrés M. (ed.), Flujos de capitales, choques externos y respuestas de política en países emergentes, chapter 8, pages 301-336, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Franz Hamann & Rafael Hernández & Luisa Silva & Fernando Tenjo G., 2014. "Leverage Pro-cyclicality and Bank Balance Sheet in Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 32(73), pages 50-76, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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