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Simple but Effective: The OeNB’s Forecasting Model for Selected CESEE Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma

    () (Vienna University of Economics and Business, Institute for Fiscal and Monetary Policy)

  • Martin Feldkircher

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division)

  • Tomáš Slacík

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division)

  • Julia Wörz

    () (Foreign Research Division, Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

Abstract

This paper describes the new forecasting tool used by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) to derive near-term forecasts for GDP and imports for five Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries, namely Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. An error correction (EC) model is estimated separately for each country by means of seemingly unrelated regressions. Each country-specific macromodel consists of six structural cointegration relationships that model private consumption, investment, exports, imports, the nominal exchange rate and the nominal interest rate using an augmented Taylor rule. Using quarterly data as of the first quarter of 1995, we produce forecasts for GDP and imports with this model. Notwithstanding the dynamic nature of the transition process as well as the limited availability and, in some cases, quality of data, our structural model for the CESEE countries performs fairly well and we expect further gains in forecasting accuracy as more data become available and their quality improves.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher & Tomáš Slacík & Julia Wörz, 2009. "Simple but Effective: The OeNB’s Forecasting Model for Selected CESEE Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 84-95.
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2009:i:4:b:3
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    File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:9b2d06e7-83ad-496c-b056-ce514aa63cbb/feei_2009_q4_studies_crespo_cuaresma-feldkircher-slacik-woerz_tcm16-144285.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jouko Rautava, 2013. "Oil Prices, Excess Uncertainty and Trend Growth," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 77-87.
    2. Markus Eller & Michael Frömmel & Nora Srzentic, 2010. "Private Sector Credit in CESEE: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 50-78.
    3. Markus Eller & Jarmila Urvová, 2012. "How Sustainable Are Public Debt Levels in Emerging Europe?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 48-79.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Error correction model; model validation; Central; Eastern and Southeastern Europe;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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