IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mnb/opaper/2015-118.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Univariate and multivariate filters to measure the credit gap

Author

Listed:
  • Zsuzsanna Hosszú

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary))

  • Gyöngyi Körmendi

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary))

  • Bence Mérõ

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary))

Abstract

Within the framework of the Basel III capital regulation, macroprudential authorities may order the accumulation of countercyclical capital buffers in the period when systemic risks are building up. According to recommendations, it is worth setting the size of the capital buffer on the basis of the magnitude of the credit-to-GDP ratio gap. Therefore, the time series of Hungary’s credit-to-GDP ratio is decomposed to trend and cyclical components (credit gap) using four trend filtering methods: univariate Hodrick–Prescott filter, univariate Christiano–Fitzgerald filter, univariate Beveridge–Nelson filter and multivariate Hodrick–Prescott filter. The decomposition was carried out separately for the household and corporate segments. Of the four methods, it is the results of the multivariate Hodrick–Prescott filter, which also uses the information content of other variables, that reflect experts’ assessment relating to developments in lending in Hungary the most. In addition, endpoint uncertainty was also the smallest in this case, i.e. the receipt of new data caused the smallest changes in the values estimated for previous periods here.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsuzsanna Hosszú & Gyöngyi Körmendi & Bence Mérõ, 2015. "Univariate and multivariate filters to measure the credit gap," MNB Occasional Papers 2015/118, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:opaper:2015/118
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/mnb-op-118-final.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Kelly & Kieran Mcquinn & Rebecca Stuart, 2011. "Exploring the Steady-State Relationship Between Credit and GDP for a Small Open Economy–The Case Of Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(4), pages 455-477.
    2. Gergely Kiss & Márton Nagy & Balázs Vonnák, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Convergence or Boom?," MNB Working Papers 2006/10, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dušan Stojanović & Danilo Stojanović, 2015. "Excessive Credit Growth Or Catching Up Process: The Case Of Central, Eastern And Southeastern European Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 60(206), pages 7-44, July - Se.
    2. Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing credit gaps in CESEE based on levels justified by fundamentals – a comparison across different estimation approaches," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 74, Bank of Lithuania.
    3. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Merike Kukk, 2017. "Asymmetries in the interaction between housing prices and housing credit in Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2017-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 25 May 2017.
    4. Ursel Baumann, 2014. "Has US Household Deleveraging Ended? A Model-Based Estimate of Equilibrium Debt," Working Papers w201404, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Christian Castro & Ángel Estrada & Jorge Martínez, 2016. "The countercyclical capital buffer in spain: an analysis of key guiding indicators," Working Papers 1601, Banco de España.
    6. Banai, Adam & Kiraly, Julia & Nagy, Marton, 2011. "Home high above and home deep down below -- lending in Hungary," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5836, The World Bank.
    7. Hosszú, Zsuzsanna & Körmendi, Gyöngyi & Mérő, Bence, 2016. "Egy- és többváltozós szűrők a hitelrés alakulásának meghatározására [Filters with single or multiple variables in measuring the size of the credit gap]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 233-259.
    8. Slawomir Zajaczkowski & Dawid Zochowski, 2007. "The distribution and dispersion of debt burden ratios among households in Poland and its implications for financial stability," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring the financial position of the household sector", Basel, 30-31 August 2006 - Volume 2, volume 26, pages 62-74, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Virginie Coudert & Cyril Pouvelle, 2010. "Assessing the Sustainability of Credit Growth: The case of Central and Eastern European Countries," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 7(1), pages 87-120, June.
    10. Győri, Ágnes, 2018. "Kis- és középvállalkozások pénzügyi sérülékenysége [Financial vulnerability among Hungarian small and medium-sized enterprises]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 240-258.
    11. Richard Connolly & Christopher A. Hartwell, 2014. "Developments in the Economies of Member States Outside the Eurozone," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52, pages 202-218, November.
    12. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Credit Growth and Capital Buffers: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Research and Policy Notes 2011/02, Czech National Bank.
    13. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 304, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    14. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Excessive Credit Growth and Countercyclical Capital Buffers in Basel III: An Empirical Evidence from Central and East European Countries," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 6(2), pages 91-107.
    15. Esteban Gómez & Angélica Lizarazo & Juan Carlos Mendoza & Andrés Murcia, 2017. "Evaluating the Impact of Macroprudential Policies in Colombia's Credit Growth," Borradores de Economia 980, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    16. Lawless, Martina & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor, 2014. "Credit Requirements for Irish Firms in the Economic Recovery," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    17. Gergana Mihaylova-Borisova, 2023. "Determinants of Credits on Private Sector in CEE Countries," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 13(1), pages 2-15, June.
    18. Bermingham, Colin & Conefrey, Thomas, 2014. "The Irish macroeconomic response to an external shock with an application to stress testing," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 454-470.
    19. Dániel Holló, 2012. "Identifying imbalances in the Hungarian banking system (‘early warning’ system)," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 7(3), pages 38-45, October.
    20. PIROVANO, Mara, 2013. "Household and firm leverage, capital flows and monetary policy in a small open economy," Working Papers 2013014, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    countercyclical capital buffer; credit gap; trend filtering method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnb:opaper:2015/118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lorant Kaszab (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mnbgvhu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.