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Misalignments in house prices and economic growth in Europe

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  • Juan Carlos Cuestas
  • Merike Kukk
  • Natalia Levenko

Abstract

In this paper we investigate house price misalignments and how they affect the real economy. We estimate the long-term relationship between house prices and the fundamentals that determine long-term house prices for a panel of European countries with dynamic OLS, using data from 2005–2018. We find that income has been the main driver of fundamental house prices in all countries, while the supply of dwellings has calmed the rise in house prices in some of them. We calculate house price misalignments, which are deviations of house prices from the fundamental value, and we employ them in the growth model. The results of the growth regression indicate that house price imbalances amplify business cycles in the short term, but in the long term house price overvaluations slow economic growth down. The findings imply that it is crucial to take measures to stabilize housing cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Cuestas & Merike Kukk & Natalia Levenko, 2023. "Misalignments in house prices and economic growth in Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(28), pages 3215-3237, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:55:y:2023:i:28:p:3215-3237
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2022.2110212
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    Cited by:

    1. Jinwoong Lee, 2024. "What factors drive house prices in the USA? Sign restricted VAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(6), pages 2533-2556, June.
    2. Kukk, Merike & Levenko, Natalia, 2024. "Measuring the effects of borrower-based policies on new housing loans," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 666-684.
    3. Federica Ciocchetta & Elisa Guglielminetti & Alessandro Mistretta, 2024. "What Drives House Prices in Europe?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(5), pages 1089-1121, October.
    4. Li, Jing & Wu, Maohua & Zhao, Chining, 2025. "High housing prices and low social integration of China’s new generation migrants in cities," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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