IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/may/mayecw/n214a-10.pdf.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sliding Doors Cost Measurement.A Restrictive Approach to Analyzing the Net Economic Cost of Policy Decisions and an Application to Irish Financial Regulation

Author

Listed:
  • Gregory Connor

    (Department of Economics Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland, Maynooth)

  • Brian O'Kelly

    (Dublin City University)

Abstract

This paper develops a restrictive procedure for evaluating economic policy decisions, by comparing actual economic history to a simulated history where a specific policy decision is replaced with a counterfactual, but credible, alternative. Our procedure is theoretically straightforward, but empirically problematic since it requires the identification of a feasible policy alternative and a model linking a specific policy choice to subsequent economic outcomes. We apply the procedure to the mistaken decision to maintain an excessively lax financial regulation regime in Ireland during the period 2003 – 2008. We measure the differences in banking sector stability and national income that would have occurred if the stricter regulatory regime imposed in Ireland in 2009 had been put in place six years earlier. We find that a few simple, reasonably prudent regulatory controls on the Irish banking sector would have greatly limited the vulnerability of the domestic sector to the 2008 global credit freeze, and almost certainly prevented the 2008-2009 collapse of the domestic banking sector and the consequent deep Irish recession of 2009-2010. On the other hand, the risky and unsustainable inflow of foreign capital mediated by the domestic banks accounts for a substantial part of Irish economic growth during the 2003-2007 period. Without this net foreign borrowing inflow, cumulative gross domestic product over the early period would have been substantially lower.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory Connor & Brian O'Kelly, 2010. "Sliding Doors Cost Measurement.A Restrictive Approach to Analyzing the Net Economic Cost of Policy Decisions and an Application to Irish Financial Regulation," Economics Department Working Paper Series n214a-10.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  • Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n214a-10.pdf
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.maynoothuniversity.ie/mayecw-files/N214a-10.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 9-62.
    5. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    6. Honohan, Patrick & Donovan, Donal & Gorecki, Paul & Mottiar, Rafique, 2010. "The Irish Banking Crisis: Regulatory and Financial Stability Policy," MPRA Paper 24896, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Dunaway, Steven, "undated". "Dealing with Capital Inflows Are There Any Lessons?," WIDER Working Papers 295321, United Nations University, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Morgan Kelly, 2009. "The Irish Credit Bubble," Working Papers 200950, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    9. Mr. Michael Kumhof & Charles Freedman & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Jaewoo Lee, 2009. "The Case for Global Fiscal Stimulus," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/003, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Montiel, Peter & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1999. "Do capital controls and macroeconomic policies influence the volume and composition of capital flows? Evidence from the 1990s," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 619-635, August.
    11. Connor, Gregory & Flavin, Thomas & O’Kelly, Brian, 2012. "The U.S. and Irish credit crises: Their distinctive differences and common features," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 60-79.
    12. Thomas Conefrey & John Fitz Gerald, 2010. "Managing Housing Bubbles In Regional Economies Under Emu: Ireland And Spain," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 211(1), pages 91-108, January.
    13. Robert J. Barro & Charles J. Redlick, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 51-102.
    14. Corbo, Vittorio & Hernandez, Leonardo, 1996. "Macroeconomic Adjustment to Capital Inflows: Lessons from Recent Latin American and East Asian Experience," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 11(1), pages 61-85, February.
    15. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Montiel, Peter J, 1996. "The Surge in Capital Inflows to Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(1), pages 51-77, January.
    16. Jaewoo Lee & Douglas Laxton & Michael Kumhof & Charles Freedman, 2009. "The Case for Global Fiscal Stimulus," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/03, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert Kelly & Kieran Mcquinn & Rebecca Stuart, 2011. "Exploring the Steady-State Relationship Between Credit and GDP for a Small Open Economy–The Case Of Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(4), pages 455-477.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Montiel, 2014. "Capital Flows: Issues and Policies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 595-633, July.
    2. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2010. "Capital inflows: Macroeconomic implications and policy responses," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 333-356, December.
    3. Nicoletta Batini & Luc Eyraud & Miss Anke Weber, 2014. "A Simple Method to Compute Fiscal Multipliers," IMF Working Papers 2014/093, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Selim Elekdag & Yiqun Wu, 2013. "Rapid Credit Growth in Emerging Markets: Boon or Boom-Bust?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(5), pages 45-62, September.
    5. Mr. Yiqun Wu & Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2011. "Rapid Credit Growth: Boon or Boom-Bust?," IMF Working Papers 2011/241, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Matti Viren, 2014. "Sensitivity of fiscal-policy effects to policy coordination and business cycle conditions," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 397-411, September.
    7. Matti Viren, 2012. "Problems of fiscal consolidation and policy coordination," Discussion Papers 82, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    8. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    9. Cerón, Juan A., 2012. "La respuesta de la política fiscal a la actividad económica en los países desarrollados/Fiscal policy reaction to economic activity in developed countries," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 30, pages 369(32)-369, Abril.
    10. Virén, Matti, 2013. "Sensitivity of fiscal-policy effects to policy coordination and business cycle conditions," Research Discussion Papers 11/2013, Bank of Finland.
    11. Dell'Erba, Salvatore & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2015. "FDI, debt and capital controls," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 29-50.
    12. Carvalho, Daniel, 2020. "Leverage and valuation effects: How global liquidity shapes sectoral balance sheets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    13. Reinhardt, Dennis & Dell'Erba, Salvatore, 2013. "Not all capital waves are alike: a sector-level examination of surges in FDI inflows," Bank of England working papers 474, Bank of England.
    14. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    15. Rafael Fernández & Clara García, 2018. "Wheels within wheels within wheels: the importance of capital inflows in the origin of the Spanish financial crisis [Current Account Patterns and National Real Estate Markets]," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 331-353.
    16. Akhilesh K. Verma & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2021. "Interlinkages between external debt financing, credit cycles and output fluctuations in emerging market economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(4), pages 965-1001, November.
    17. Dennis Reinhardt & Salvatore Dell'Erba, 2013. "Las olas de capital no son todas iguales: análisis sectorial de las alzas en las entradas de IED," Boletín, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 57-92, abril-jun.
    18. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2014. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 6, pages 165-204, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Martijn J. Burger & Elena I. Ianchovichina, 2017. "Surges and stops in greenfield and M&A FDI flows to developing countries: analysis by mode of entry," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(2), pages 411-432, May.
    20. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n214a-10.pdf. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/demayie.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/demayie.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.