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The Financial Cycle Index of Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Gersl

    (Charles University)

  • Pervin Dadashova

    (National Bank of Ukraine)

  • Yuliya Bazhenova

    (National Bank of Ukraine)

  • Anatolii Hlazunov

    (National Bank of Ukraine
    Kyiv School of Economics)

  • Danylo Krasovytskyi

    (National Bank of Ukraine
    Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv)

Abstract

This study introduces the financial cycle index as a means to identify the position of the Ukrainian economy in the financial cycle. The index encompasses 16 indicators aggregated into four subindices that capture cyclical systemic risks stemming from the immoderate debt burden of the private sector, the easing of lending conditions, excessive growth of real estate prices, and macroeconomic imbalances. This financial cycle measure can be used as one of a number of guidelines when making policy decisions on the use of countercyclical prudential instruments to prevent the accumulation of cyclical systemic risks and to stabilize the financial system in a timely manner.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Gersl & Pervin Dadashova & Yuliya Bazhenova & Anatolii Hlazunov & Danylo Krasovytskyi, 2025. "The Financial Cycle Index of Ukraine," Working Papers 01/2025, National Bank of Ukraine.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukb:wpaper:01/2025
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    File URL: https://bank.gov.ua/admin_uploads/article/WP_2025-04-01.pdf
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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