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A Dynamic Analysis of Mortgage Arrears in the UK Housing Market

Author

Listed:
  • Catarina Figueira

    (Cranfield University)

  • John Glen

    (Cranfield University)

  • Joseph Nellis

    (Cranfield University)

Abstract

The UK economy has enjoyed an unprecedented period of positive economic growth since the early 1990s. The absence of recession for more than a decade has been accompanied by a sustained decline in the level of mortgage arrears, as reported by major lenders. This paper seeks to examine the factors which have driven the reduction in mortgage arrears and, in doing so, identify those factors which are most likely to cause arrears to increase in the future, should economic conditions deteriorate. The paper employs the Johansen methodology to test for the presence of multiple cointegrating vectors. An error correction model is estimated in order to examine long-run and short-run dynamics in mortgage arrears. In line with previous research concerning the causes of mortgage arrears, the results presented here emphasise the importance of changes in the rate of unemployment, loan–income and debt–service ratios. More importantly, our results highlight the statistical significance of unwithdrawn housing equity as an explanatory variable with respect to mortgage arrears.

Suggested Citation

  • Catarina Figueira & John Glen & Joseph Nellis, 2005. "A Dynamic Analysis of Mortgage Arrears in the UK Housing Market," Urban/Regional 0509006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0509006
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Martín Vallcorba & Javier Delgado, 2007. "Determinantes de la morosidad bancaria en una economía dolarizada. El caso uruguayo," Working Papers 0722, Banco de España.
    2. Ashton, John K. & Hudson, Robert S., 2017. "The price, quality and distribution of mortgage payment protection insurance: A hedonic pricing approach," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 242-255.
    3. Mitropoulos, Atanasios & Zaidi, Rida, 2009. "Relative indicators of default risk among UK residential mortgages," MPRA Paper 19619, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. McInerney, Niall, 2019. "Macroprudential Policy, Banking and the Real Estate Sector," MPRA Paper 91777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2010. "Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions," Economics Series Working Papers 499, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Wadud, Mokhtarul & Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher & Tang, Xueli, 2020. "Factors affecting delinquency of household credit in the U.S.: Does consumer sentiment play a role?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    7. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2016. "“Modelling and forecasting mortgage delinquency and foreclosure in the UK.”," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 32-53.
    8. Roberto Blanco & Ricardo Gimeno, 2012. "Determinants of default ratios in the segment of loans to households in Spain," Working Papers 1210, Banco de España.
    9. Crook, Jonathan & Banasik, John, 2012. "Forecasting and explaining aggregate consumer credit delinquency behaviour," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 145-160.
    10. Sarah Brown, 2015. "Household repayment behaviour and neighbourhood effects," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(6), pages 1169-1188, May.
    11. Jorge E. Galán & Matías Lamas, 2019. "Beyond the LTV ratio: new macroprudential lessons from Spain," Working Papers 1931, Banco de España.
    12. Lenarčič, Črt, 2022. "Drivers of household arrears: an euro area country panel data analysis," MPRA Paper 114558, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortgage arrears; housing market; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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