Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices: The Use of Index-Based Futures and Options in Real Estate
Evidence is shown, using US foreclosure data by state 1975-93, that periods of high default rates on home mortgages strongly tend to follow real estate price declines or interruptions in real estate price increase. The relation between price decline and foreclosure rates is modelled using a distributed lag. Using this model, holders of residential mortgage portfolios could hedge some of the risk of default by taking positions in futures or options markets for residential real estate prices, were such markets to be established.
|Date of creation:||May 1995|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Journal of Housing Research (1996), 7(2): 243-258|
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- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Allan N. Weiss, 1991. "Index-Based Futures and Options Markets in Real Estate," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1006, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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NBER Working Papers
4830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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NBER Working Papers
2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Kau James B. & Keenan Donald C. & Kim Taewon, 1994. "Default Probabilities for Mortgages," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 278-296, May.
- Johnston, Elizabeth Tashjian & McConnell, John J, 1989. "Requiem for a Market: An Analysis of the Rise and Fall of a Financial Futures Contract," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(1), pages 1-23.
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