IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Excess Credit Risk and Bank’s Default Risk An Application of Default Prediction’s Models to Banks from Emerging Market Economies

  • Christophe Godlewski

    (LaRGE, Institut d'Etudes Politiques, Université Robert Schuman, Strasbourg 3)

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the regulatory and institutional factors which may increase excessive risk taking in banks. Few studies deal with the impact of these external factors on bank’s risk taking and probability of default, despite the fact that empirical investigation is crucial for understanding the relationship between the regulatory, legal and institutional environement and bank’s health, especially in emerging market economies. We apply a two step logit model to a database of banks from emerging market economies. Our results confirm the role of the institutional and regulatory environment as a source of excess credit risk, which increases bank failure risk. The integration of these environmental variables significantly contributes to the explanatory and discriminatory power of our model of bank default prediction.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0409028.

in new window

Date of creation: 08 Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0409028
Note: Type of Document - pdf
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Michael C. Jensen, 2010. "The Modern Industrial Revolution, Exit, and the Failure of Internal Control Systems," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 22(1), pages 43-58.
  2. Houston, Joel F. & James, Christopher, 1995. "CEO compensation and bank risk Is compensation in banking structured to promote risk taking?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 405-431, November.
  3. La Porta, Rafael & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. " Legal Determinants of External Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1131-50, July.
  4. Demirguc, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2000. "Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility: A Multivariate Logit Approach," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 287-307, May.
  5. Stephen Prowse, 1995. "Alternative methods of corporate control in commercial banks," Working Papers 9507, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  6. Richard S. Barr & Thomas F. Siems, 1994. "Predicting bank failure using DEA to quantify management quality," Financial Industry Studies Working Paper 94-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  7. Kose John & Anthony Saunders & Lemma W. Senbet, 1996. "A Theory of Bank Regulation and Management Compensation," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-30, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  8. Kevin C. Murdock & Thomas F. Hellmann & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2000. "Liberalization, Moral Hazard in Banking, and Prudential Regulation: Are Capital Requirements Enough?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 147-165, March.
  9. Berger, Allen N. & Herring, Richard J. & Szego, Giorgio P., 1995. "The role of capital in financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 393-430, June.
  10. James R. Barth & R. Dan Brumbaugh & Daniel Sauerhaft & George H.K. Wang, 1985. "Thrift institution failures: causes and policy issues," Proceedings 68, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  11. Saunders, Anthony & Strock, Elizabeth & Travlos, Nickolaos G, 1990. " Ownership Structure, Deregulation, and Bank Risk Taking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-54, June.
  12. James R. Barth & Gerard Caprio Jr. & Ross Levine, 2002. "Financial Regulation and Performance: Cross-COuntry Evidence," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 4, pages 113-142 Central Bank of Chile.
  13. George G. Kaufman & Larry R. Mote, 1994. "Is banking a declining industry? A historical perspective," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 2-21.
  14. Brenda González-Hermosillo, 1999. "Determinants of Ex-Ante Banking System Distress: A Macro-Micro Empirical Exploration of Some Recent Episodes," IMF Working Papers 99/33, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Barth, James R. & Caprio, Gerard & Levine, Ross, 2000. "Banking systems around the globe : do regulation and ownership affect the performance and stability?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2325, The World Bank.
  16. Robert T. Clair, 1992. "Loan growth and loan quality: some preliminary evidence from Texas banks," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 9-22.
  17. Franklin R. Edwards & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "The Decline of Traditional Banking: Implications for Financial Stabilityand Regulatory Policy," NBER Working Papers 4993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Santomero, Anthony M. & Trester, Jeffrey J., 1998. "Financial innovation and bank risk taking," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 25-37, March.
  19. Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December.
  20. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, 1989. "Deposit-institution failures: a review of empirical literature," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 2-18.
  21. Knopf, John D. & Teall, John L., 1996. "Risk-taking behavior in the U.S. thrift industry: Ownership structure and regulatory changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(8), pages 1329-1350, September.
  22. Klapper, Leora F. & Love, Inessa, 2002. "Corporate governance, investor protection, and performance in emerging markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2818, The World Bank.
  23. Cordella, Tito & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, 1998. "Financial Opening, Deposit Insurance and Risk in a Model of Banking Competition," CEPR Discussion Papers 1939, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Qaizar Hussain & Clas Wihlborg, 1999. "Corporate Insolvency Procedures and Bank Behavior: A Study of Selected Asian Economies," IMF Working Papers 99/135, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Kim, Daesik & Santomero, Anthony M, 1988. " Risk in Banking and Capital Regulation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1219-33, December.
  26. Gorton, Gary & Rosen, Richard, 1995. " Corporate Control, Portfolio Choice, and the Decline of Banking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1377-1420, December.
  27. Rafael LaPorta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, . "Investor Protection and Corporate Governance," Working Paper 19455, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  28. Schmidt, Reinhard H. & Hackethal, Andreas & Tyrell, Marcel, 1999. "Disintermediation and the Role of Banks in Europe: An International Comparison," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 8(1-2), pages 36-67, January.
  29. Patrick Honohan, 1997. "Banking system failures in developing and transition countries: Diagnosis and predictions," BIS Working Papers 39, Bank for International Settlements.
  30. Rafael LaPorta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, . "Law and Finance," Working Paper 19451, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  31. Barth, James R. & Caprio Jr, Gerard & Levine, Ross, 2001. "The regulation and supervision of banks around the world - a new database," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2588, The World Bank.
  32. Stephen D. Prowse, 1995. "Alternative methods of corporate control in commercial banks," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 24-36.
  33. Coleen C. Pantalone & Marjorie B. Platt, 1987. "Predicting commercial bank failure since deregulation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 37-47.
  34. William R. Keeton & Charles S. Morris, 1987. "Why do banks' loan losses differ?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue May, pages 3-21.
  35. Daniel Covitz & Erik Heitfield, 1999. "Monitoring, moral hazard, and market power: a model of bank lending," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  36. Anderson, Ronald C. & Fraser, Donald R., 2000. "Corporate control, bank risk taking, and the health of the banking industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1383-1398, August.
  37. Robert B. Avery & Gerald A. Hanweck, 1984. "A dynamic analysis of bank failures," Research Papers in Banking and Financial Economics 74, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  38. Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr, 1975. "A Multivariate Statistical Analysis of the Characteristics of Problem Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(1), pages 21-36, March.
  39. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 1996. "Bank insolvencies : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1620, The World Bank.
  40. Koehn, Michael & Santomero, Anthony M, 1980. " Regulation of Bank Capital and Portfolio Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1235-44, December.
  41. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, 1989. "Modeling large commercial-bank failures: a simultaneous-equation analysis," Working Paper 8905, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  42. David T. Llewellyn, 2002. "An analysis of the causes of recent banking crises," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 152-175, June.
  43. João A. C. Santos, 2000. "Bank capital regulation in contemporary banking theory: a review of the literature," BIS Working Papers 90, Bank for International Settlements.
  44. Blum, Jurg, 1999. "Do capital adequacy requirements reduce risks in banking?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 755-771, May.
  45. Ang, James S. & Lauterbach, Beni & Schreiber, Ben Z., 2001. "Internal monitoring, regulation, and compensation of top executives in banks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 325-335, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0409028. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.