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Macroeconomic determinants of Polish banks’ loan losses – results of a panel data study

The paper investigates the links between business cycle variables and loan losses of Polish commercial banks. A panel approach was chosen in order to make maximum use of available supervisory data, and to capture the impact of bank profile on loan losses. Loan losses are proxied by the flow of loan loss provisions. We find a significant influence of real GDP growth, changes in real interest rate, and labour market variables such as changes in unemployment rate. Due to the high share of FX loans to households, the influence of exchange rate is also examined, but the results are inconclusive. The differences in loan losses between banks can be attributed to differences in business profile, described by classification of banks into “strategic groups”, as well as the structure of loan portfolio. The paper concludes with an example of a stress testing exercise conducted using scenarios generated through the National Bank of Poland’s macroeconomic model.

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File URL: http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/53_en.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its series National Bank of Poland Working Papers with number 53.

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Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:53
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  1. Hałaj, Grzegorz & Żochowski, Dawid, 2006. "Strategic groups in Polish banking sector and financial stability," MPRA Paper 326, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Pesola, Jarmo, 2001. "The role of macroeconomic shocks in banking crises," Research Discussion Papers 6/2001, Bank of Finland.
  3. Baltagi, Badi H. & Wu, Ping X., 1999. "Unequally Spaced Panel Data Regressions With Ar(1) Disturbances," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(06), pages 814-823, December.
  4. Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking, Contagion and Financial Fragility," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  5. Slawomir Zajaczkowski & Dawid Zochowski, 2007. "The distribution and dispersion of debt burden ratios among households in Poland and its implications for financial stability," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring the financial position of the household sector", Basel, 30-31 August 2006 - Volume 2, volume 26, pages 62-74 Bank for International Settlements.
  6. Pesola, Jarmo, 2005. "Banking fragility and distress : an econometric study of macroeconomic determinants," Research Discussion Papers 13/2005, Bank of Finland.
  7. Enrico De Giorgi, 2002. "An Intensity Based Non-Parametric Default Model for Residential Mortgage Portfolios," Risk and Insurance 0209001, EconWPA, revised 09 Sep 2002.
  8. A. Bhargava & L. Franzini & W. Narendranathan, 1982. "Serial Correlation and the Fixed Effects Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 533-549.
  9. Bikker, J.A. & Metzemakers, P.A.J., 2005. "Bank provisioning behaviour and procyclicality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 141-157, April.
  10. J.A. Bikker & H. Hu, 2003. "Cyclical Patterns in Profits, Provisioning and Lending of Banks," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 86, Netherlands Central Bank.
  11. Porter, Michael E, 1979. "The Structure within Industries and Companies' Performance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(2), pages 214-27, May.
  12. Sorge, Marco & Virolainen, Kimmo, 2006. "A comparative analysis of macro stress-testing methodologies with application to Finland," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 113-151, June.
  13. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2005. "Credit cycles, credit risk, and prudential regulation," Working Papers 0531, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  14. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
  15. Kanagaretnam, Kiridaran & Lobo, Gerald J & Mathieu, Robert, 2003. "Managerial Incentives for Income Smoothing through Bank Loan Loss Provisions," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 63-80, January.
  16. Ivan Baboucek & Martin Jancar, 2005. "Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks to the Quality of the Aggregate Loan Portfolio," Working Papers 2005/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  17. Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1995. "A Theory of Income and Dividend Smoothing Based on Incumbency Rents," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 75-93, February.
  18. Pesola, Jarmo, 2001. "The role of macroeconomic shocks in banking crises," Research Discussion Papers 6/2001, Bank of Finland.
  19. Olga Andreeva, 2004. "Aggregate bankruptcy probabilities and their role in explaining banks’ loan losses," Working Paper 2004/02, Norges Bank.
  20. Mario Quagliariello, . "Banks' Performance over the Business Cycle: A Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries," Discussion Papers 04/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
  21. Williams, Jonathan, 2004. "Determining management behaviour in European banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2427-2460, October.
  22. Stefan Gerlach & Wensheng Peng & Chang Shu, 2005. "Macroeconomic conditions and banking performance in Hong Kong SAR: a panel data study," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 481-97 Bank for International Settlements.
  23. Glenn Hoggarth & Andrew Logan & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Macro stress tests of UK banks," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 392-408 Bank for International Settlements.
  24. Robert T. Clair, 1992. "Loan growth and loan quality: some preliminary evidence from Texas banks," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 9-22.
  25. Pesola , Jarmo, 2005. "Banking fragility and distress: An econometric study of macroeconomic determinants," Research Discussion Papers 13/2005, Bank of Finland.
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