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Conservative Stress Testing: The Role of Regular Verification

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Abstract

This paper focuses on how to calibrate models used to stress test the most important risks in the banking system. Based on the results of a verification of the Czech National Bank’s stress testing methodology, the paper argues that stress tests should be calibrated conservatively and slightly overestimate the risks. However, to ensure that the stress test framework is conservative enough over time, a verification, i.e. comparison of the actual values of key banking sector variables – in particular the capital adequacy ratio – with predictions generated by the stress-testing models should become a standard part of the stress-testing framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2010. "Conservative Stress Testing: The Role of Regular Verification," Working Papers IES 2010/12, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2010_12
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    File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/default/file/download/id/13755
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Petr Jakubik & Jakub Seidler, 2009. "Estimating Expected Loss Given Default," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2008/2009, chapter 0, pages 102-109 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    2. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik, 2010. "Procyclicality of the Financial System and Simulation of the Feedback Effect," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2009/2010, chapter 0, pages 110-119 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    3. Petr Jakubík & Jaroslav Heřmánek, 2008. "Stress testing of the czech banking sector," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2008(3), pages 195-212.
    4. Thomas Breuer & Martin Jandacka & Klaus Rheinberger & Martin Summer, 2009. "How to Find Plausible, Severe and Useful Stress Scenarios," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 205-224, September.
    5. Petr Jakubik & Christian Schmieder, 2008. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: Is the Czech Republic Different from Germany?," Working Papers 2008/9, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    stress testing; credit risk; bank capital;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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