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Stress Testing Credit Risk: Is the Czech Republic Different from Germany?

Author

Listed:
  • Petr Jakubik
  • Christian Schmieder

Abstract

This study deals with credit risk modelling and stress testing within the context of a Merton-type one-factor model. We analyse the corporate and household sectors of the Czech Republic and Germany to find determining variables of credit risk in both countries. We find that a set of similar variables explains corporate credit risk in both countries despite substantial differences in the default rate pattern. This does not apply to households, where further research seems to be necessary. Next, we establish a framework for the stress testing of credit risk. We use a country specific stress scenario that shocks macroeconomic variables with medium severity. The test results in credit risk increasing by more than 100% in the Czech Republic and by roughly 40% in Germany. The two outcomes are not fully comparable since the shocks are calibrated according to the historical development of the time series considered and the size of the shocks for the Czech Republic was driven by the transformation period.

Suggested Citation

  • Petr Jakubik & Christian Schmieder, 2008. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: Is the Czech Republic Different from Germany?," Working Papers 2008/9, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2008/9
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    File URL: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/cnb_wp/download/cnbwp_2008_09.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2005. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - banks’ choice of loan rating system," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 26(3), pages 537-557, October.
    2. Cottarelli, Carlo & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Vladkova-Hollar, Ivanna, 2005. "Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 83-104, January.
    3. Michael Boss & Gerald Krenn & Claus Puhr & Martin Summer, 2006. "Systemic Risk Monitor: A Model for Systemic Risk Analysis and Stress Testing of Banking Systems," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 11, pages 83-95.
    4. John G. Cragg & Russell S. Uhler, 1970. "The Demand for Automobiles," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 3(3), pages 386-406, August.
    5. Philip Bunn & Victoria Redwood, 2003. "Company accounts based modelling of business failures and the implications for financial stability," Bank of England working papers 210, Bank of England.
    6. Martin Cihak, 2004. "Designing Stress Tests for the Czech Banking System," Research and Policy Notes 2004/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    7. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alena Bicakova & Zuzana Prelcova & Renata Pasalicova, 2010. "Who Borrows and Who May Not Repay?," Working Papers 2010/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    2. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2010. "Conservative Stress Testing: The Role of Regular Verification," Working Papers IES 2010/12, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2008.
    3. Beck, Roland & Jakubik, Petr & Piloiu, Anamaria, 2013. "Non-performing loans: what matters in addition to the economic cycle?," Working Paper Series 1515, European Central Bank.
    4. Petr Jakubík & Petr Teplý, 2011. "The JT Index as an Indicator of Financial Stability of Corporate Sector," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(2), pages 157-176.
    5. Roland Beck & Petr Jakubik & Anamaria Piloiu, 2015. "Key Determinants of Non-performing Loans: New Evidence from a Global Sample," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 525-550, July.
    6. George Papadopoulos & Savas Papadopoulos & Thomas Sager, 2016. "Credit risk stress testing for EU15 banks: a model combination approach," Working Papers 203, Bank of Greece.
    7. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "How to Improve the Quality of Stress Tests through Backtesting," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(4), pages 325-346, August.
    8. Petr Jakubík, 2011. "Household Balance Sheets and Economic Crisis," Working Papers IES 2011/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jun 2011.
    9. Cağatay Başarır, 2016. "A Macro Stress Test Model of Credit Risk for the Turkish Banking Sector," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(12), pages 762-774, December.
    10. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik, 2010. "Procyclicality of the Financial System and Simulation of the Feedback Effect," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2009/2010, chapter 0, pages 110-119 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    11. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Dynamic Stress Testing: The Framework for Testing Banking Sector Resilience Used by the Czech National Bank," Working Papers 2012/11, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    12. Adam Geršl & Petr Jakubik & Dorota Kowalczyk & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró, 2015. "Monetary Conditions and Banks’ Behaviour in the Czech Republic," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 407-445, July.
    13. Jakubik, Petr, 2011. "Households response to economic crisis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    14. Natalia Podlich & Didar Illyasov & Elena Tsoy & Shynar Shaikh, 2010. "The Methodology of Stress Tests for the Kazakh Banking System," ifo Working Paper Series 85, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    15. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2010. "Stress Test Verification as Part of an Advanced Stress-Testing Framework," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2009/2010, chapter 0, pages 92-101 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    16. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2013. "Dynamic Stress Testing: The Framework for Assessing the Resilience of the Banking Sector Used by the Czech National Bank," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(6), pages 505-536, December.
    17. Noor-e-Saher & Mehran Herbert, 2010. "Response of Long-term Interest Rate to Fiscal Imbalance: Evidence from Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 6, pages 43-49.
    18. Bogdan-Gabriel MOINESCU, 2012. "Determinants Of Nonperforming Loans In Central And Eastern European Countries: Macroeconomic Indicators And Credit Discipline," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 10, pages 47-58, December.
    19. Henrik Andersen, 2009. "Norwegian banks in a recession: Procyclical implications of Basel II," Working Paper 2009/04, Norges Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; credit risk modelling; stress testing.;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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